Should you make the progressive bet at Caribbean Stud?

"Well, should I or shouldn't I?"

The voice belonged to Mark, who had attended a couple of seminars I'd given. I'd seen him in casinos a couple of times before. This time, he was sitting at a Caribbean Stud table as I was passing, checking out available games and table limits.

I stopped and asked what it was he should or shouldn't do.

"Make the progressive bet. It's terrible odds, isn't it? Should I just skip it?"

I didn't want to hold up the game. I told him the bet was a long-shot, but it was his decision. He could find me later if he really wanted a lengthy discussion.

"What the heck," he said. "I came to gamble."

He plunked in his dollar on the progressive bet, and was dealt a pair of 8s. The progressive bet was a loser, but he won on his ante and got his bet back --- the dealer didn't have a qualifying hand.

Mark grinned. "Won enough for a few more bets on the jackpot, anyway."

I moved on, but Mark found me later while I was playing a little video poker.

"Did I catch you at a bad time?"

No, I told him, I was ready for a break.

"So tell me what you really think of that progressive bet? Is it something I should just skip?"

That depends on why you're playing Caribbean Stud, I told him. Are you just relaxing a bit over a game that's easy to play, or are you jackpot hunting?

"A little of both, really. Mostly I play blackjack. Basic strategy stuff --- I never really got into counting cards. Still, you have to pay attention, and when my concentration starts to go, I do something else for a while. Maybe I'll fool around with 20 bucks on the nickel slots, or sometimes I'll play a little Caribbean Stud."

I nodded. Basic strategy for Caribbean Stud is much easier than that for blackjack. The cost is high, though. A blackjack basic strategy player can get the house edge down to about a half percent on a six-deck game, a few tenths more or less depending on house rules. At Caribbean Stud, even if you play well, the house edge is 5.2 percent of the ante or 2.6 percent of total action.

"I know that, and it's a break-time game for me. But I also like the idea that I can win pretty big, pretty fast when the cards run good. You don't have to have great cards, full houses or flushes or anything, but get some two pairs and some three of a kinds and it's really sweet. When you're being paid 2-1 or 3-1 on hands like that instead of just even money like in blackjack, that stack of chips can grow in a hurry."

It can shrink in a hurry, too, I reminded him. Winning hands are much less frequent in Caribbean Stud than in blackjack, and most of the winners are pair or lower hands, or hands in which the dealer doesn't qualify. On those, you'll still get only even money.

"Right, but there's always the chance at a big one, and some real money. I'm not greedy. I know the royal flush is pretty unlikely, but give me 7-1 on a full house and I'm a happy man. Give me 20-1 on four of a kind, and it makes my day. If I throw in the extra dollar and get back another $75 on the full house or $100 on four of a kind --- it's pretty exciting."

I told him the question is whether the excitement is worth it on a bet you win so rarely.

"But if you watch the jackpot level, you can get a pretty decent house edge, right? It's not always an awful bet."

On the standard pay table --- $50 on a flush, $75 on a full house, $100 on four of a kind, either $5,000 or 10 percent of the jackpot on a straight flush or the full jackpot on a royal flush --- the break-even point is about $263,000.

But the house edge isn't the entire issue. Even if the jackpot is very large and the house edge is very low, or players have the edge, the likelihood of winning is very low. In five-card stud poker, there are 2,598,960 possible hands. Only four of those are royal flushes --- one royal per 649,740 hands. The most frequent winners on the progressive bet are flushes --- about one per 509 hands. Add up all the winners, and you'll still average a winner only once per 273 hands.

"And that doesn't change with the bigger jackpot?"

That doesn't change. Frequency of winning hands remains the same, it's only the size of potential rewards that changes.

"But do you know how horrible I'd feel if I got dealt the royal and didn't bet the progressive? I think I'd rather lose the dollars than to risk that."

Then that's your answer, I told him.

"Still, one winner per 273 hands? That's tough," he said, smiling as he left. "I think I'll keep a countdown."

Blackjack mythology

Hang around blackjack tables long enough, and you'll pick up all kinds of "wisdom" from other players and from the dealers. Of course, a lot of what you hear isn't really all that wise, and a good part of blackjack wisdom comes from knowing when to disregard the things people say about the games people play.

A deuce is a dealer's Ace.

Let's be clear here. An ACE is a dealer's Ace. The most flexible of cards since it can be counted as either 1 or 11, Aces are almost as good for the dealer as they are for the player --- they're more important to players because you must have an Ace to get a blackjack, and blackjacks pay 3-2 to players and not to dealers.

And deuces are more important to dealers than to players. That's because dealers must always hit hands of 16 and under. Players stand on some of those hands, so dealers are in more situations where a small card like a 2 will help their hands.

Still, I usually hear this remark when the dealer has a 2 face up, and in that situation there's no comparison between a deuce and an Ace. With a deuce up, the dealer busts about 35 percent of the time. With an Ace up, the dealer busts only between 11 and 12 percent of the time. You would MUCH rather see the dealer start with a 2 than an Ace.

The object of blackjack is to win every hand. Taking even money is a sure win. Always take even money.

Even money is a form of insurance, offered when the player has a blackjack and the dealer has an Ace face up. You can accept an even-money payoff on your blackjack, and not risk the dealer also having a blackjack. Decline, and you'll get no payoff at all if the dealer has a 10-value card face down.

Countless dealers have told me even money is "the only sure thing in the house." The other piece of wisdom, that the object is to win every hand, is something I've heard from a few players. Let's dispense with that part first. The object of blackjack is not to win every hand, or even the majority of hands. If that's what you're trying to do, you're doomed to fail. Even the best card counters lose more hands than they win.

But even though the pros lose more hands than they win, they win more money than they lose. Why? Because the real object is to maximize winnings while minimizing losses. And one of the ways to maximize winnings is to go for the full 3-2 payoffs on blackjacks. Even money becomes a break-even proposition when a third of the remaining cards are 10-values. Of all cards in the deck, only 30.8 percent are 10-values.

Decline the even-money offer. You won't win as many hands, but you'll win more money.

Surrender is for people who don't like to gamble.

This sage advice isn't always expressed in those terms. I've found it more often in terms of the odd snide remark when I surrender. "I guess I came to gamble," or "Did you come to play or not?"

At the Tropicana in Las Vegas one time, I surrendered a 16 when the dealer showed a 10. A woman next to me said, "Oh, I didn't know you could surrender here. How does that work?" And the gentleman sitting at third base snarled, "I guess it depends on whether you came to gamble."

Now, playing blackjack well includes both maximizing winnings and minimizing losses. (Where have I heard that before?) Surrender comes under the heading of minimizing losses.

The majority of casinos don't offer surrender at all. Those that do offer "late surrender" --- "late" because you have to wait until the dealer checks for blackjack. If the dealer has a blackjack, you can't surrender.

When you surrender, you give up half your bet in exchange for not having the play out the hand and risk losing the full amount. It's a good deal, if you know how to use it. In a multiple-deck game in which the dealer stands on all 17s, surrender with hard 16 if the dealer's face-up card is a 9, 10-value or Ace, and surrender with hard 15 if the dealer's up card is a 10-value. In casinos where the dealer hits soft 17, we add one hand --- in addition to the others listed, surrender on hard 15 when the dealer shows an Ace.

Surrender is a guaranteed loss that we don't accept lightly. All we're trying to do is mitigate the damage when we're at a big disadvantage. I've seen players go the total opposite ways of the anti-surrender sages, players who surrender 14s and even 13s anytime the dealer has a 10 or Ace, and sometimes even 9s or 8s. That's overboard. We're not in that much of a hurry to give our money away.

Limit the surrendering those few situations listed above. That's the wise way, and it leaves plenty of hands to gamble.

Blackjack freedom of choice helps if you know how to choose

Freedom of choice is a good thing for blackjack players who know their basic strategy, but for many players, it largely means the freedom to choose poorly.

Players who take the time to learn well are best off with a game that gives them plenty of options. Being allowed to double down on any first two cards and to split and resplit pairs is to the advantage of players who know how to use the options wisely. On the other hand, I see players every week who would be better off if double downs were restricted to hard totals of 10 or 11.

Of course, such players would be better off still if they just took a short time to learn how to use the options presented. Let's take a look at rules that can be beneficial to the player, but need to be handled with care.

Double down on any first two cards: When it comes to doubling down, I've seen some truly odd plays. I once watched a fellow double down every time he started with hard 12. Doubling when it's possible to bust in one card is such an unusual--and bad--play that the dealer was required to call "Double on hard 12!" to the pit supervisor every time the play was made.

I also once played at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas at the same table as a man who doubled on every soft total--hands in which an Ace is at least temporarily being counted as 11 and which can't be busted with a one-card hit. He peeled off $100 bill after $100 bill, getting his comeuppance for doubling Ace-2 against a dealer's 9, and Ace-4 against a 7. The play that had the whole table trying to show him the error of his ways was when he doubled on Ace-Ace against a Jack, instead of the far superior play of splitting the pair. Such players would be better off if opportunities to double down were limited.

In multiple-deck games where the dealer stands on all 17s, it's to the basic strategy player's advantage to double on hard 11 unless the dealer's up card is an Ace, on hard 10 against everything except an Ace or 10-value, and on hard 9 against 3, 4, 5 or 6. If the dealer hits soft 17, double on 11 against all dealer up cards, including the Ace. No doubling on hard 12 or above, or on hard 8 or below.

As for soft hands in stand-on-all-17s games, double soft 17 or 18 if the dealer shows a 3, 4, 5 or 6, soft 15 or 16 against 4, 5 or 6, and soft 13 or 14 against 5 or 6. If the dealer hits soft 17, also double on soft 18 vs. 2, and soft 19 vs.6.

Resplitting pairs: I've occasionally been in casinos that allow only one split--if you split 8, 8 and are dealt another 8, you're stuck with 16 as the start to one hand. Most allow you to resplit pairs, so in that situation, you could have three separate hands, each starting with 8. Some allow up to three splits, giving you a total of four hands.

Players who do strange things such as splitting 5s or 10s--awful plays--are better off with a rule that stops them before they split again. But really, being allowed to resplit is to the player's advantage, provided the player knows when to split in the first place. As far as the basic strategy player is concerned, if splitting the pair is the proper play the first time, so is each potential resplit.

When should you split the pairs? Always split Aces and 8s, but never split 5s or 10-values. For everything else, it depends on the dealer's up card.

If allowed to double down after splitting pairs, split 2s or 3s if the dealer shows 2 through 7, 4s against 5s or 6s and 6s against 2 through 6.

If doubling down after splitting is not permitted, split 2s or 3s against 4 through 7, never split 4s and split 6s only against 3 through 6.

Regardless of whether doubling after splits is permitted, split 7s against 2 through 7.

The trickiest play is splitting 9s. Split (and resplit, given the opportunity) against 2 through 6 and against 8 or 9, but stand against 7, 10 or Ace.

Surrender: Surrender has become a rare option,. but when it's permitted, you can give up half your bet instead of playing out the hand. It's been about 15 years since I've seen early surrender, where you can make the play before the dealer checks for blackjack. In late surrender, you can't surrender when the dealer has blackjack -- you lose the whole bet.

I've seen players surrender 14s against 7s and 12s against 10s. I even watched one player surrender every 16, regardless of dealer up card.

If the dealer stands on all 17s, you can limit losses by surrendering hard 16 when the dealer shows a 9, 10 or Ace, and surrender hard 15 against a dealer's 10. If the dealer hits soft 17, surrender hard 15 vs. 10 or Ace, hard 16 vs. 9, 10 or Ace, and hard 17 vs. Ace.

A player who surrenders more than that could do with a little less freedom of choice.

Can playing the streaks help in roulette?

Q. When I play roulette, I wait until the same color hits three times in a row, then I bet the opposite color. If there have been three black colors, I bet red, and if there have been three red colors, I bet black. My friend says he'd go the opposite way, that if there are three red numbers in a row, he'd think red was hot and stay with it. Who's right?

A. To use one of the favorite phrases of gaming analysts, the wheel has no memory. It doesn't know if the last three numbers have been red, black, mixed or polka dotted. Past results have no effect on future outcome. Regardless of what happened in the last few spins, on the next spin there's a 47.37 percent chance the number will be red, 47.37 percent that it will be black and 5.26 percent that it will be a green 0 or 00.
Is there an advantage to your system? Sure. If you wait to bet until three numbers of the same color turn up, you do a lot more watching than betting.Watching costs less.

Faulty app leads blackjack player astray

Q. Here is a question about a murky corner of the basic strategy table for blackjack: Do you hit or stand on soft hands with three or more cards?

The only blackjack book I have at hand is Henry Tamburin's "Blackjack: Take the Money and Run." Tamburin says, "As a general rule, a player should never stand on a soft hand that totals 17 or less." I read this to include hands with three or more cards as well as hands with two cards.

I recently purchased an application that allows many ways of practicing blackjack. The application is a solid piece of work that takes into account most rules variations. Plenty of knowledge and care have gone into its creation. If I follow Tamburin's dictum with a soft hand of 17 or less, I get scored with an error. The default strategy table in the application follows the rules for hard hands with all hands of three or more cards.

Example: Dealer's upcard is a 3. You are dealt a 2, a 3 and an Ace. You have a total of either 6 or 16. The way I read Tamburin indicates that the best play is a hit. The application says I should stand.

Am I misinterpreting Tamburin's rule?

A. It seems your blackjack app is not quite as solid as you would like to think. It is leading you astray on soft hands.

You are not reading Tamburin wrong. He is correct and your application is in error. It seems to be defaulting to basic strategy for hard hands after you receive a third card. That's a serious bug, since you can't bust soft hands with a one-card draw.

Look at it this way. If you stand on soft 16, how can you win? The only way is if the dealer busts. If instead you hit, what's the worst that can happen? You can't bust the hand, so the worst you wind up with is another hand that can win only if the dealer busts. You could draw a standing hand, or you could draw one that's no worse than your starting point. There is no downside to taking a hit.

There is no downside to hitting the hand, and the upside is that you could draw a low card that will turn your hand into a winner.

Pik-It Poker from DigiDeal

One of the pioneers in multiplayer electronic table games, DigiDeal is promoting a new game called Pik-It Poker. It's two-tiered game with both play against the dealer and a 3-Card Bonus bet. Antes plus bonus bets start play, and the bonus is resolved first. Cards are dealt face down, and players touch the screen to pick which three will be turned up to make a three-card poker hand. Winners are paid according to a pay table --- just as in Pair Plus in Three Card Poker, they don’t have to beat the dealer --- then the other two cards are turned up, and those who wagered on the bonus get an additional payoff if their five-card hand includes two pairs or better.

Then it’s time for play against the dealer. You check out your hand to see if it’s a stronger play to bet on a three-card hand or the full five cards, then touch the screen to choose which to play. Taking advantage of the electronic format, Pik-It has a “suggested: play” feature to tell the player the optimal choice.

DigiDeal has carved out a niche with traditional table games such as blackjack in an electronic format. Its first games used electronic cards dealt by a random number generator, but real chips for wagering. That format remains available for casinos that like to use a dealer-host to interact with players and settle bets, but game with touch-screens for wagering also are available. One advantage of the touch screens is that DigiDeal can offer multiple side bets on the same game without slowing it down, and without mistakes in payoffs.