Readers ask about blackjack, slots

Question. What percentage of blackjack players do you think are counting cards? Half? I just wonder, when I see players splitting 6s against a 10. They can't be counting cards.

Answer. I doubt that half of blackjack players in casinos have studied a basic strategy chart, let alone count cards. I'd put the number of card counters at less than 1 percent of the blackjack-playing population.

Before any player who is trying to get better worries about counting cards, he or she must master basic strategy first. An average blackjack player faces a house edge of about 2 to 2.5 percent. Learning basic strategy can cut that house edge to around a half percent or less, depending on house rules.

How can you tell if someone at your table is a basic strategy player? Here are a few common moves that separate those who know their basic from those who don't:, assuming a multiple-deck game.

• A basic strategy player hits hard 16 when the dealer shows a 7. Every time.
• A basic strategy player splits Aces, and splits 8s, even when the dealer has a 10 face up. Exception: The basic strategy player will surrender on 8-8 if the dealer hits soft 17 and surrender is offered.
• A basic strategy player never stands on soft 17. He or she hits or doubles down, depending on the dealer's face up card.
• A basic strategy player hits on 12 if the dealer shows a 2 or a 3.
• A basic strategy player hits on soft 18 if the dealer shows a 9, 10 or Ace.

Those are all moves that give trouble to those who play by intuition.

Card counters will sometimes make plays that run counter to basic strategy. In addition to hitting 12 against a 2 or 3, a counter will sometimes also hit 12 against 4, if the composition of the remaining cards is right. A card counter also will sometimes hit 16 against 10, but not 16 vs. 7.

Insurance is a special case. Intuition players often will insure their blackjacks by taking even money when the dealer has an Ace face up. Basic strategy players will never take insurance --- that's the right play most of the time. Card counters, on the other hand, will take insurance if the remaining deck includes a high enough percentage of high cards.

Look around next time you play. See how many players hem, haw and sometimes stand on 16 vs. 7, or fail to split 8s against a 10, or stand on Ace-7 against a 9. That'll tell you just how few basic strategy players there are --- and there are many, many few card counters.

Question. I would like to know if adding say $1,000 to a slot machine loosens that machine for a big payout.

Also, I always play the max. Does it matter what the denomination of the game is? That is, do the games loosen as the denomination rises? Does a $1 game pay more than a penny slot played at maximum?

Answer. No amount of play changes the odds of hitting a winning combination on slot machines. If the game is programmed so that there is a 1 in 10,000 chance of hitting the big jackpot, then there is a 1 in 10,000 chance on every spin. If you've just hit the jackpot, the odds are still in 1 in 10,000; if you've played 9,999 spins without hitting the big jackpot, the odds are STILL 1 in 10,000.

(The 1 in 10,000 is just an example, by the way. Some machines hit more frequently, some much less. There are machines with a 1 in 2,000 chance of hitting the top jackpot, while in a big-money game like Megabucks the chances are 1 in tens of millions.)

If it's a progressive machine, adding money to the top jackpot does not change the odds of your hitting that jackpot. If the progressive meter starts at $1,000, and the jackpot meter has grown to $2,000, the chances of winning are the same as when you started. The long-term payback percentage does grow with the progressive meter, because the big hit pays more when it finally comes.

As for changing coin denomination, that DOES make a difference. Generally, penny machines pay less than nickel machines, which pay less than quarters, which pay less than dollars and so on. If you play maximum coins on a penny machine, your bet may be as large as if you're playing a three-reel dollar slot, but in most cases the dollar game will have a higher payback percentage.

Of course, there's also a difference in the play experience between a penny video slot and a dollar reel-spinner. Winning spins are more frequent on the video game, but payoffs of many times your wager are more common on the reel-spinner. The penny game will keep you in your seat longer, but the dollar game gives you a better chance of walking away with a fairly substantial win. That's the choice slot players face when deciding between low-denomination video games and higher denomination reel spinners.

Readers ask about other blackjack players, and loosening the slots

Question. What percentage of blackjack players do you think are counting cards? Half? I just wonder, when I see players splitting 6s against a 10. They can't be counting cards.

Answer. I doubt that half of blackjack players in casinos have studied a basic strategy chart, let alone count cards. I'd put the number of card counters at less than 1 percent of the blackjack-playing population.

Before any player who is trying to get better worries about counting cards, he or she must master basic strategy first. An average blackjack player faces a house edge of about 2 to 2.5 percent. Learning basic strategy can cut that house edge to around a half percent or less, depending on house rules.

How can you tell if someone at your table is a basic strategy player? Here are a few common moves that separate those who know their basic from those who don't:

• A basic strategy player hits hard 16 when the dealer shows a 7. Every time.
• A basic strategy player splits Aces, and splits 8s, even when the dealer has a 10 face up.
• A basic strategy player never stands on soft 17. He or she hits or doubles down, depending on the dealer's face up card.
• A basic strategy player hits on 12 if the dealer shows a 2 or a 3.
• A basic strategy player hits on soft 18 if the dealer shows a 9, 10 or Ace.

Those are all moves that give trouble to those who play by intuition.

Card counters will sometimes make plays that run counter to basic strategy. In addition to hitting 12 against a 2 or 3, a counter will sometimes also hit 12 against 4, if the composition of the remaining cards is right. A card counter also will sometimes hit 16 against 10, but not 16 vs. 7.

Insurance is a special case. Intuition players often will insure their blackjacks by taking even money when the dealer has an Ace face up. Basic strategy players will never take insurance --- that's the right play most of the time. Card counters, on the other hand, will take insurance if the remaining deck includes a high enough percentage of high cards.

Look around next time you play. See how many players hem, haw and sometimes stand on 16 vs. 7, or fail to split 8s against a 10, or stand on Ace-7 against a 9. That'll tell you just how few basic strategy players there are --- and there are many, many few card counters.

Question. I would like to know if adding say $1,000 to a slot machine loosens that machine for a big payout.

Also, I always play the max. Does it matter what the denomination of the game is? That is, do the games loosen as the denomination rises? Does a $1 game pay more than a penny slot played at maximum?

Answer. No amount of play changes the odds of hitting a winning combination on slot machines. If the game is programmed so that there is a 1 in 10,000 chance of hitting the big jackpot, then there is a 1 in 10,000 chance on every spin. If you've just hit the jackpot, the odds are still in 1 in 10,000; if you've played 9,999 spins without hitting the big jackpot, the odds are STILL 1 in 10,000.

(The 1 in 10,000 is just an example, by the way. Some machines hit more frequently, some much less. There are machines with a 1 in 2,000 chance of hitting the top jackpot, while in a big-money game like Megabucks the chances are 1 in tens of millions.)

If it's a progressive machine, adding money to the top jackpot does not change the odds of your hitting that jackpot. If the progressive meter starts at $1,000, and the jackpot meter has grown to $2,000, the chances of winning are the same as when you started. The long-term payback percentage does grow with the progressive meter, because the big hit pays more when it finally comes.

As for changing coin denomination, that DOES make a difference. Generally, penny machines pay less than nickel machines, which pay less than quarters, which pay less than dollars and so on. If you play maximum coins on a penny machine, your bet may be as large as if you're playing a three-reel dollar slot, but in most cases the dollar game will have a higher payback percentage.

Of course, there's also a difference in the play experience between a penny video slot and a dollar reel-spinner. Winning spins are more frequent on the video game, but payoffs of many times your wager are more common on the reel-spinner. The penny game will keep you in your seat longer, but the dollar game gives you a better chance of walking away with a fairly substantial win. That's the choice slot players face when deciding between low-denomination video games and higher denomination reel spinners.

Blackjack mythology

Hang around blackjack tables long enough, and you'll pick up all kinds of "wisdom" from other players and from the dealers. Of course, a lot of what you hear isn't really all that wise, and a good part of blackjack wisdom comes from knowing when to disregard the things people say about the games people play.

A deuce is a dealer's Ace.

Let's be clear here. An ACE is a dealer's Ace. The most flexible of cards since it can be counted as either 1 or 11, Aces are almost as good for the dealer as they are for the player --- they're more important to players because you must have an Ace to get a blackjack, and blackjacks pay 3-2 to players and not to dealers.

And deuces are more important to dealers than to players. That's because dealers must always hit hands of 16 and under. Players stand on some of those hands, so dealers are in more situations where a small card like a 2 will help their hands.

Still, I usually hear this remark when the dealer has a 2 face up, and in that situation there's no comparison between a deuce and an Ace. With a deuce up, the dealer busts about 35 percent of the time. With an Ace up, the dealer busts only between 11 and 12 percent of the time. You would MUCH rather see the dealer start with a 2 than an Ace.

The object of blackjack is to win every hand. Taking even money is a sure win. Always take even money.

Even money is a form of insurance, offered when the player has a blackjack and the dealer has an Ace face up. You can accept an even-money payoff on your blackjack, and not risk the dealer also having a blackjack. Decline, and you'll get no payoff at all if the dealer has a 10-value card face down.

Countless dealers have told me even money is "the only sure thing in the house." The other piece of wisdom, that the object is to win every hand, is something I've heard from a few players. Let's dispense with that part first. The object of blackjack is not to win every hand, or even the majority of hands. If that's what you're trying to do, you're doomed to fail. Even the best card counters lose more hands than they win.

But even though the pros lose more hands than they win, they win more money than they lose. Why? Because the real object is to maximize winnings while minimizing losses. And one of the ways to maximize winnings is to go for the full 3-2 payoffs on blackjacks. Even money becomes a break-even proposition when a third of the remaining cards are 10-values. Of all cards in the deck, only 30.8 percent are 10-values.

Decline the even-money offer. You won't win as many hands, but you'll win more money.

Surrender is for people who don't like to gamble.

This sage advice isn't always expressed in those terms. I've found it more often in terms of the odd snide remark when I surrender. "I guess I came to gamble," or "Did you come to play or not?"

At the Tropicana in Las Vegas one time, I surrendered a 16 when the dealer showed a 10. A woman next to me said, "Oh, I didn't know you could surrender here. How does that work?" And the gentleman sitting at third base snarled, "I guess it depends on whether you came to gamble."

Now, playing blackjack well includes both maximizing winnings and minimizing losses. (Where have I heard that before?) Surrender comes under the heading of minimizing losses.

The majority of casinos don't offer surrender at all. Those that do offer "late surrender" --- "late" because you have to wait until the dealer checks for blackjack. If the dealer has a blackjack, you can't surrender.

When you surrender, you give up half your bet in exchange for not having the play out the hand and risk losing the full amount. It's a good deal, if you know how to use it. In a multiple-deck game in which the dealer stands on all 17s, surrender with hard 16 if the dealer's face-up card is a 9, 10-value or Ace, and surrender with hard 15 if the dealer's up card is a 10-value. In casinos where the dealer hits soft 17, we add one hand --- in addition to the others listed, surrender on hard 15 when the dealer shows an Ace.

Surrender is a guaranteed loss that we don't accept lightly. All we're trying to do is mitigate the damage when we're at a big disadvantage. I've seen players go the total opposite ways of the anti-surrender sages, players who surrender 14s and even 13s anytime the dealer has a 10 or Ace, and sometimes even 9s or 8s. That's overboard. We're not in that much of a hurry to give our money away.

Limit the surrendering those few situations listed above. That's the wise way, and it leaves plenty of hands to gamble.

Blackjack: Team sport or not?

I'd met Al before. He'd come to at least one of my seminars, and we once found ourselves at the final table in a blackjack tournament. Neither of us won.

So when he called out my name from a blackjack table, I waved and walked over to say hello. He colored up his chips and said he had something he wanted to talk about way from the table.

"These MIT guys. They played as a team right?" he asked.

Yes, I told him the story of the MIT card counting team is well chronicled in Ben Mizrich's best seller, Bringing Down the House, and you can learn more about them and their methods at www.blackjackinstitute.com.

"OK, I thought so. Do they or teams like them send out scouts to look for players? While I'm playing, is someone from a team likely to be checking me out?"

Unsolicited? Without you knowing them or having approached the team first?

"Yeah. Just them looking for new players."

No, I told him. It's extremely unlikely that a team would be recruiting people they don't know on such a hit-and-miss basis. A blackjack team is a business that requires a lot of trust. Members won't be in a hurry to recruit someone unknown to them.

"That makes sense. I'm just trying to figure out something someone said at the table the other day."

What's that?

"I'd just doubled down, and a guy at the other end of the table said, 'You're not a team player.' And the woman next to him said, 'If you're going to make plays like that, we don't want to play with you.' And they picked up their chips and left."

Were you sitting at third base, the last position to take a card before the dealer?

"Yeah, that's right. I like to see all the other cards before I play."

Do you remember the details of the hand? What were you doubling on, and what did the dealer have face up?

"I had an Ace and a 7. The dealer showed a 6. By the book, that's a double down hand, right?"

Yes, it is. Doubling was the right play.

"So why were they so upset? And what's this about a team"

Easy, I told him. Al had encountered a couple with a peculiar mindset that is not uncommon at the blackjack table. They believe that third base is a team position at a blackjack table, and that by sitting at third base, the player agrees to avoid taking the dealer's bust card. They thought he should have been satisfied to stand on his soft 18 against a 6 instead of doubling down and taking another card --- the card they thought could be the one to bust the dealer's hand.

"Oh, I should have known," he said, the look of comprehension spreading across his face. "They wanted me to make bad plays because they thought it would help the rest of the table. Well, that's dumb."

Sure it's dumb. For one thing, when the dealer has a 6 up, there's no guarantee he or she has a high enough card face down that it can be busted with a one-card draw. And even if the dealer does have a high card face down, there's no guarantee that the next card will be the bust card. A player who takes a hit at third base --- or, in Al's case, doubles down --- could just as easily be taking a low card that would make the dealer's hand.

The problem is that players remember the times a third baseman's hit takes a high card that would have busted the dealer, but don't remember the times that the hit takes a low card. They certainly don't remember the times that going a card deeper into the deck because of the hit actually causes the dealer to bust. It is just as likely that the third baseman helps the table rather than hurting it by taking a hit.

But enough players have a bad case of selective memory that they blame the third baseman when things don't go their way.

"So what they're saying is nonsense. Third base is not a team position."

Of course not, unless the others are willing to subsidize your losses when you make a play you don't want to. I've never yet had other players offer to make up the difference if I stand on soft 18 instead of doubling down, or stand on 12 instead of hitting against 2 or 3, or any of the other odd things they think the third baseman should be willing to do.

"Somehow I didn't think the MIT guys were looking for people to make bad plays. I take it that's not the kind of team play they're looking for."

Not at all. Team play for them involves a card counter letting a big player know when the situation is right to come in and make large bets. It does not involve the silliness of avoiding taking a dealer's bust card.

"I should have known," Al said before returning to the table. "Anyone smart enough to figure all that out wouldn't expect such dumb plays."

Blackjack freedom of choice helps if you know how to choose

Freedom of choice is a good thing for blackjack players who know their basic strategy, but for many players, it largely means the freedom to choose poorly.

Players who take the time to learn well are best off with a game that gives them plenty of options. Being allowed to double down on any first two cards and to split and resplit pairs is to the advantage of players who know how to use the options wisely. On the other hand, I see players every week who would be better off if double downs were restricted to hard totals of 10 or 11.

Of course, such players would be better off still if they just took a short time to learn how to use the options presented. Let's take a look at rules that can be beneficial to the player, but need to be handled with care.

Double down on any first two cards: When it comes to doubling down, I've seen some truly odd plays. I once watched a fellow double down every time he started with hard 12. Doubling when it's possible to bust in one card is such an unusual--and bad--play that the dealer was required to call "Double on hard 12!" to the pit supervisor every time the play was made.

I also once played at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas at the same table as a man who doubled on every soft total--hands in which an Ace is at least temporarily being counted as 11 and which can't be busted with a one-card hit. He peeled off $100 bill after $100 bill, getting his comeuppance for doubling Ace-2 against a dealer's 9, and Ace-4 against a 7. The play that had the whole table trying to show him the error of his ways was when he doubled on Ace-Ace against a Jack, instead of the far superior play of splitting the pair. Such players would be better off if opportunities to double down were limited.

In multiple-deck games where the dealer stands on all 17s, it's to the basic strategy player's advantage to double on hard 11 unless the dealer's up card is an Ace, on hard 10 against everything except an Ace or 10-value, and on hard 9 against 3, 4, 5 or 6. If the dealer hits soft 17, double on 11 against all dealer up cards, including the Ace. No doubling on hard 12 or above, or on hard 8 or below.

As for soft hands in stand-on-all-17s games, double soft 17 or 18 if the dealer shows a 3, 4, 5 or 6, soft 15 or 16 against 4, 5 or 6, and soft 13 or 14 against 5 or 6. If the dealer hits soft 17, also double on soft 18 vs. 2, and soft 19 vs.6.

Resplitting pairs: I've occasionally been in casinos that allow only one split--if you split 8, 8 and are dealt another 8, you're stuck with 16 as the start to one hand. Most allow you to resplit pairs, so in that situation, you could have three separate hands, each starting with 8. Some allow up to three splits, giving you a total of four hands.

Players who do strange things such as splitting 5s or 10s--awful plays--are better off with a rule that stops them before they split again. But really, being allowed to resplit is to the player's advantage, provided the player knows when to split in the first place. As far as the basic strategy player is concerned, if splitting the pair is the proper play the first time, so is each potential resplit.

When should you split the pairs? Always split Aces and 8s, but never split 5s or 10-values. For everything else, it depends on the dealer's up card.

If allowed to double down after splitting pairs, split 2s or 3s if the dealer shows 2 through 7, 4s against 5s or 6s and 6s against 2 through 6.

If doubling down after splitting is not permitted, split 2s or 3s against 4 through 7, never split 4s and split 6s only against 3 through 6.

Regardless of whether doubling after splits is permitted, split 7s against 2 through 7.

The trickiest play is splitting 9s. Split (and resplit, given the opportunity) against 2 through 6 and against 8 or 9, but stand against 7, 10 or Ace.

Surrender: Surrender has become a rare option,. but when it's permitted, you can give up half your bet instead of playing out the hand. It's been about 15 years since I've seen early surrender, where you can make the play before the dealer checks for blackjack. In late surrender, you can't surrender when the dealer has blackjack -- you lose the whole bet.

I've seen players surrender 14s against 7s and 12s against 10s. I even watched one player surrender every 16, regardless of dealer up card.

If the dealer stands on all 17s, you can limit losses by surrendering hard 16 when the dealer shows a 9, 10 or Ace, and surrender hard 15 against a dealer's 10. If the dealer hits soft 17, surrender hard 15 vs. 10 or Ace, hard 16 vs. 9, 10 or Ace, and hard 17 vs. Ace.

A player who surrenders more than that could do with a little less freedom of choice.

Faulty app leads blackjack player astray

Q. Here is a question about a murky corner of the basic strategy table for blackjack: Do you hit or stand on soft hands with three or more cards?

The only blackjack book I have at hand is Henry Tamburin's "Blackjack: Take the Money and Run." Tamburin says, "As a general rule, a player should never stand on a soft hand that totals 17 or less." I read this to include hands with three or more cards as well as hands with two cards.

I recently purchased an application that allows many ways of practicing blackjack. The application is a solid piece of work that takes into account most rules variations. Plenty of knowledge and care have gone into its creation. If I follow Tamburin's dictum with a soft hand of 17 or less, I get scored with an error. The default strategy table in the application follows the rules for hard hands with all hands of three or more cards.

Example: Dealer's upcard is a 3. You are dealt a 2, a 3 and an Ace. You have a total of either 6 or 16. The way I read Tamburin indicates that the best play is a hit. The application says I should stand.

Am I misinterpreting Tamburin's rule?

A. It seems your blackjack app is not quite as solid as you would like to think. It is leading you astray on soft hands.

You are not reading Tamburin wrong. He is correct and your application is in error. It seems to be defaulting to basic strategy for hard hands after you receive a third card. That's a serious bug, since you can't bust soft hands with a one-card draw.

Look at it this way. If you stand on soft 16, how can you win? The only way is if the dealer busts. If instead you hit, what's the worst that can happen? You can't bust the hand, so the worst you wind up with is another hand that can win only if the dealer busts. You could draw a standing hand, or you could draw one that's no worse than your starting point. There is no downside to taking a hit.

There is no downside to hitting the hand, and the upside is that you could draw a low card that will turn your hand into a winner.

Can basic strategy give players an edge?

Q. The blackjack rules I play under yield about a .38% house advantage.

Does that (somehow) include the variables of doubling down, splitting and 3 to 2 blackjack payoff?

I thought that I could overcome that house edge using those variables but it looks like I might be wrong and therefore doomed to eventual failure in coming out ahead. (I play online so can’t count cards.)

Actual rules are 4 decks, stand on soft 17, double after split, no surrender, dealer peeks for blackjack

A. When the house edge is listed at .38%, that assumes basic strategy for hitting, standing, splitting and doubling, and takes into account the 3-2 payoff on blackjacks.

If you used dealer strategy, hitting all 16s and below, and standing on all 17s and higher, the house edge would be about 5.7 percent. It’s through making the proper hit, stand, split, double decisions that you get it down to half a percent or so.

Without counting cards, you can narrow the house edge, but not eliminate it.