Practice time brings a video poker strategy surprise

Practice may not make perfect in video poker, but it can spring some surprises on you.

I got a surprise of my own recently as I was practicing my strategy on Not So Ugly Deuces Wild. It's a game I hadn't played in some time, but I was planning a day at a casino that offered it. With expert play, NSUD pays 99.7 percent with expert play. That figured to be the best game I'd find on that trip, so I figured I'd better put in a little practice time on the WinPoker software I use.

Here's the hand I was dealt: Queen of clubs, 9 of diamonds, 8 of diamonds, 4 of spades, 3 of hearts.
High pairs don't pay off in Deuces Wild --- the pay table starts at three of a kind --- so I wasn't going to hold the low Queen. Straights in Deuces Wild pay only 2-for-1, so you need four cards before you start thinking about possible straight draws. The best straight possibilities here were only two-card sequences. Flushes pay 3-for-1 in NSUD, better than the 2-for-1 in full-pay Deuces Wild, so we do look for flushes often. Still, there were only two cards of the same suit in this hand.

Straight flushes pay 10-for-1, another step up from full-pay Deuces, which pays 9-for-1. But two cards to a straight flush? Not likely.

My conclusion: Toss the entire hand. Take a chance on five fresh cards.

The software's conclusion: A pop-up box, warning me I was making a mistake.
I changed my play to holding the 8-9 of diamonds, the only feasible play I could see here. At least it would give me starts on possible flushes, straights, and a long shot at a straight flush.

That, the computer accepted. It played out the draw, and then I clicked on the "analyze any hand" option to check out the numbers.

Sure enough, the calculations told me that holding the 8-9 of diamonds would bring an average return of 1.6075 coins per five wagered, while tossing the entire hand would bring only 1.6074 coins. I was wrong by one ten-thousandths of a percent.

Not a make-or-break hand obviously, and if you're playing in a casino and decide to toss the entire hand, well, I won't quibble. In order for holding the suited 8-9 to be the correct play, all the circumstances had to be in place.

To start with, the NSUD pay table had to be in place. In full-pay Deuces Wild, which pays less on flushes and straight flushes than the Not So Ugly variety, the best play is to discard all five cards. Even in Illinois Deuces, which matches NSUD in paying 3-for-1 on flushes but retains the full-pay return of 9-for-1 on straight flushes, the expert play is to toss the lot. The same hand in Illinois Deuces returns an average of 1.6012 coins with a five-coin discard, but only 1.5828 when holding the suited 8-9.

Beyond that, the situation regarding other possible straights and flushes had to be the same. Remember the hand: Queen of clubs, 8-9 of diamonds, 4 of spades, 3 of hearts.

If holding the two consecutive diamonds with a straight flush possibility meant tossing a third diamond, the percentages would shift. If the 3 of hearts was a diamond instead, the best play would be to throw away the entire hand. Three diamonds with no straight flush possibility wouldn't yield enough to hold them, and throwing away a third diamond would diminish flush possibilities enough that holding the 8-9 would no longer be worthwhile.

Same deal with straight possibilities. The only possible straight involving three cards in the original hand is 8-9-Queen. There are two gaps on the inside, so the only combinations that can complete the straight are 10-Jack, 10-2, Jack-2 or two wild deuces.

What if the Queen of clubs was a Jack instead? Then there would be only one gap, and the combinations that would result in a straight would increase to 7-10, 10-Queen, 7-2, Queen-2, or 2-2. Throwing away the Jack would decrease the chances of building 8-9 into a straight that here too, the best play would change to discarding all five cards.

It seems by random chance in practicing with the WinPoker software, I ran into the right hand on the right pay table to learn a little something. If I'm playing with the Not So Ugly Deuces Wild pay table, and if I'm dealt a hand with 8-9 suited, no other cards of the same suit, and no straight possibilities with less than two gaps, I'll be holding the 8-9.

That's a rare situation, and who knows when I'll run into it again. But it's a play I'll never forget, and one I'd never have noticed had I not taken the time for a little practice.

Why video poker pros always bet max coin

Video poker games that pay in excess of 100 percent with expert play are practically non-existent in the Midwest, and even in Nevada they're getting scarcer all the time. A fellow named Jack games such as full-pay Deuces Wild and 10-7-5 Double Bonus Poker on his mind when he phone me recently.

"There are video poker pros in Nevada, right?"

Yes, I told him, although there are fewer opportunities for video poker advantage play than there used to be. And most video poker "pros" have other jobs or businesses. You have to be well-bankrolled and able to withstand the inevitable losing streaks to really press home the small edge you can get at some video poker games.

"It's that bankroll part I wanted to ask about. When a pro finds himself without enough money to bet five coins at a time, does he switch to one-coin play?"

No, I told him.

"Never? I mean, surely, it doesn't make any more sense for a pro to overbet their bankroll than it does for an average player."

Never. A short-bankrolled pro --- if he or she is smart --- is a pro who doesn't play until the bankroll is sufficiently padded.

"But surely a little one-coin play can help the pro through the tough times. Can't that help build the bankroll little by little so the pro has enough to bet it all again?"

It's more likely that one-coin play would erode the bankroll little by little until the pro hand nothing left.

"But these guys are experts, and the edge is the edge, right? They know all the expert strategy you like to write about."

Expert strategy is more than knowing which cards to hold and which cards to fold. It's also not overbetting your bankroll, and knowing that you can't get an edge on a video poker game unless you bet maximum coins. That's because of the huge jump in the royal flush payoff with five coins wagered. On most machines, a royal pays 250 coins for a one-coin wager, 500 for two, 750 for three or 1,000 for four. But on the fifth coin, the royal jumps to 4,000 coins --- essentially, you're getting 3,000 coins for the royal on that final coin wagered, but only getting 250 per coin on the first four coins.

"Royals are rare. Does that make that much difference, that a pro wouldn't even play for the smaller payoff?"

It makes all the difference in the world. Take 10-7-5 Double Bonus Poker, where full houses pay 10-for-1, flushes 7-for-1 and straights 5-for-1. With expert play, that's a 100.17 percent game. The pro squeezes out a small profit on the game, and cash back and comps are gravy. But when the royal is worth only 250 coins per coin wagered, the payback with expert play drops to 99.11 percent. It's not a beatable game.

Or take full-pay Deuces Wild. That yields a 100.76 return with expert play. But with four or fewer coins wagered, that return drops to 99.75 percent, under that magic 100 percent mark.

Betting fewer than five coins turns even the best video poker games into games that will pad the house's bankroll, not yours.

"So to get the edge, you have to bet five coins?"

Right. In video poker, the house makes ALL its money on coins Nos. 1 through 4. On the fifth coin, the player has an edge. That goes even for lower-paying games. On 8-5 Jacks or Better, the payoff on coins

Nos. 1-4 is only 96.06 percent. But on the fifth coin alone, we get back 102.26 percent, raising the overall return on the machine to 97.3 percent.

"I wish I could bet just the fifth coin."

So do I. If we got that payoff on every coin, we'd all be pros --- until the games disappeared.