Q. What do you think about "free play" instead of cash back on your
rewards cards? The casino where I go has started doing it that way. I
have to play with my rewards. I can't just take the money home.
A. You've mentioned the primary drawback of free play, from a
player's standpoint. From the casino's standpoint, that's the primary
advantage. The casino is rewarding someone who is going to use the money
to play in the casino, and not take it away to spend outside.
Free play is given in a couple of different ways. At some casinos,
separate cards with a magnetic stripe are issued, and those cards are
inserted into the same reader you use for your player rewards card.
Credits are then loaded to the game. Elsewhere, you just place your
rewards card in the reader, and punch in a promotions code to load the
credits.
Given a choice, I'd rather have cash back that I can spend as I
please. Ten dollars in cash is worth more than $10 in free play, where
you're most likely to lose a portion before you can cash out. However,
if the knowledge that the credits are being used for play leads casinos
to give larger rewards, I'm all for it.
If your goal is to take something close to the full amount home, I'd
suggest playing a low volatility game, such as the video poker games
Jacks or Better or Bonus Poker, where two-pair hands pay 2-for-1.
There's no guarantee that you'll still have most of the credits after
you run them through the machine once, but those games give you a better
chance at holding the line than slot machines or more volatile video
poker games do.
Once you've wagered the credits once, you can cash out and take
what's left home if you like. As with any money you have on the machines
or on the tables, there's no requirement that you play. It's your
money, not "theirs," and you can always take it home.
Q. I've enjoyed reading your reports from the gambling show (Global
Gaming Expo) in Las Vegas. Some of the new games sound like a lot of
fun, and I can't wait to try them.
I have a question about staying in Las Vegas. My wife and I are
thinking about going, and everyone tells us someplace different to stay.
Where do you stay, and why?
A. For the Global Gaming Expo, I stayed off the Strip, at Sam's Town off Boulder Highway a few miles east of the Strip, and at the Orleans
on West Tropicana Avenue. Both are locals-oriented places owned by Boyd
Gaming, which in the Midwest operates the Blue Chip in Michigan City,
Ind., and the Par-A-Dice in East Peoria, Ill. I enjoy staying and
playing at the locals-type places, with large selections of video poker games
and good restaurants at reasonable prices.
Most tourists going to Las Vegas will have different priorities than
mine. Especially if it's your first time, you're going to want to spend
time oooooh-ing and aaahhh-ing at the sites of the Strip. I highly
recommend that any Vegas first-timer stay on the Strip. If you have
money to burn, the megaresorts such as Bellagio and Venetian are ultra
upscale luxury hotels. But if you're on a budget, you can spend a lot
less money at the older resorts such as the Flamingo or Tropicana, and
still take in the sights, and check out the shows and designer
restaurants at the newer properties.
If gambling is a priority, and you're looking for the best shot to
win, you'll find better video poker pay tables, better blackjack rules,
better slot paybacks if you get off the Strip. Still, the spectacle of
the Strip, is something that calls for full immersion at least once.
Q. I like to play the keno machines, but my friend says she'll only
play live keno because the house keeps more money on the machines. Is
that right?
A. Per dollar wagered, casinos usually give back more on keno
machines than on the live game. Live games, most common in Nevada, often
return less than 80 percent of money wagered, and even less than 70
percent in some casinos. Keno machines must fulfill the same payback
requirements as slot machines, and in most states that means returns of
at least 80 percent. In Illinois, for example, no electronic gaming
device may return less than 80 percent of wagers to players. In Indiana,
it's 83 percent.
Competitive pressures drive paybacks higher than those state-mandated
minimums. Video keno paybacks in the high 80s and low 90s are common.
Video games move much faster than the live game, however, and make
more money for casinos than live games do. You'll likely get a higher
payback percentage on a video keno game, but your risk per hour will be
much higher.
Wednesday, November 6, 2013
Monday, October 28, 2013
What's with royals? Readers want to know
Video poker players love to talk about royal flushes --- the ones
they hit, the ones they didn't, the ones that are still to come.
I had a couple of e-mails from players who were downright philosophical about their royals. One asked what the lack of royals did to the payback percentage, while the other wanted to know if expert strategy --- a term I use often in this column --- gives you a better chance at royals.
First things first. On most video poker games, royal flushes account for about 2 percent of your long-term return. When you read that 9-6 Jacks or Better returns 99.5 percent with expert play, royals account for about 2 percent of that. Between royal flushes, you're playing about a 97.5 percent game.
Within that 97.5 percent, of course, there's room for a whole lot of volatility. Sometimes you're going to hit a cluster of four of a kinds, and win big even without a royal. Sometimes you'll struggle to find anything better than two pair, and you'll have a session that doesn't begin to approach 97 percent. It happens.
I remember volatility taking a big swing in my favor in the early days of riverboat casinos in Illinois, back when the boats were required to leave the dock for two-hour sessions. I was playing 8-5 Jacks or Better --- as good as it got in the Chicago area at the time --- and hit a four of a kind, and then another.
Cruise time was almost over, so I pushed the button to cash out. The tokens started to pour into the tray … and then the hopper jammed. I waited, and waited, and waited some more. By the time an attendant came over to check, there were only about 10 minutes left until the doors would close and I'd be stuck for another cruise. He cleared the jam … and the hopper stopped again. This time it needed a fill.
There was no question of getting off the boat now. I was stuck. So while waiting for the hopper fill, I started playing the next machine. Within five hands, I had another four of a kind. A few minutes later, quads again.
Then again, and again. Within half an hour, I had six sets of quads to go with the two four of a kinds on the other machine.
If we'd had ticket in, ticket out payoffs in those days, I'd have been happily off the boat with profits from two quick four of a kinds. Instead, my bankroll was even happier with six more quads, although my wife was a little miffed that I was a couple of hours late.
That's a long tangent just to say big wins are possible without a royal. And, of course, large, fast losses are part of the game, too. But overall, your payback percentage is about 2 percent lower whenever your session doesn't include a royal flush.
Royal-less streaks happen, and they can get awfully lengthy --- "awful" being a key part of that phrase.
Given expert strategy, we'll hit a royal about once per 40,000 hands, a little more or less often depending on the game and its strategy adaptations. For someone who plays at a steady, but not really speedy, 500 hands an hour, that'll give us a royal about once per 80 hours of play.
But we can't count on that royal being there within 80 hours. With such a rare event, sometimes we'll go two or three times that long without seeing a royal flush. My reader seems to be in one of those streaks now.
Frustrating, but normal.
As for the question of whether expert strategy helps you hit more royals, the answer is not necessarily. Expert strategy is designed to maximize the average return on each decision you face, and sometimes that means we'll pass up the chance at a royal.
For example, playing 9-6 Jacks or Better and dealt Queens of clubs, diamonds and spades, along with a King and a 10 of diamonds, do you hold the three of a kind, or do you hold King-Queen-10 of diamonds?
If you hold the three Queens, you have no chance at a royal flush. If you hold the three diamonds, you'll draw a royal once per 1,081 hands. Still, holding the three Queens is a much, much better play. You're assured of three of a kind, and have a chance at a full house or four of a kind. Your average return is 21.5 coins per five wagered, compared with 6.7 coins if you hold the three diamonds.
You could hit more royals by using a "go for it" strategy in which you always discard cards that get in the way of royal possibilities. You'd also lose a lot of money using it.
I had a couple of e-mails from players who were downright philosophical about their royals. One asked what the lack of royals did to the payback percentage, while the other wanted to know if expert strategy --- a term I use often in this column --- gives you a better chance at royals.
First things first. On most video poker games, royal flushes account for about 2 percent of your long-term return. When you read that 9-6 Jacks or Better returns 99.5 percent with expert play, royals account for about 2 percent of that. Between royal flushes, you're playing about a 97.5 percent game.
Within that 97.5 percent, of course, there's room for a whole lot of volatility. Sometimes you're going to hit a cluster of four of a kinds, and win big even without a royal. Sometimes you'll struggle to find anything better than two pair, and you'll have a session that doesn't begin to approach 97 percent. It happens.
I remember volatility taking a big swing in my favor in the early days of riverboat casinos in Illinois, back when the boats were required to leave the dock for two-hour sessions. I was playing 8-5 Jacks or Better --- as good as it got in the Chicago area at the time --- and hit a four of a kind, and then another.
Cruise time was almost over, so I pushed the button to cash out. The tokens started to pour into the tray … and then the hopper jammed. I waited, and waited, and waited some more. By the time an attendant came over to check, there were only about 10 minutes left until the doors would close and I'd be stuck for another cruise. He cleared the jam … and the hopper stopped again. This time it needed a fill.
There was no question of getting off the boat now. I was stuck. So while waiting for the hopper fill, I started playing the next machine. Within five hands, I had another four of a kind. A few minutes later, quads again.
Then again, and again. Within half an hour, I had six sets of quads to go with the two four of a kinds on the other machine.
If we'd had ticket in, ticket out payoffs in those days, I'd have been happily off the boat with profits from two quick four of a kinds. Instead, my bankroll was even happier with six more quads, although my wife was a little miffed that I was a couple of hours late.
That's a long tangent just to say big wins are possible without a royal. And, of course, large, fast losses are part of the game, too. But overall, your payback percentage is about 2 percent lower whenever your session doesn't include a royal flush.
****
On to the second reader. "I read about expert strategy," she started,
"and I was wondering. Does expert strategy help me hit more royals? I
practice on the computer, and I try to play the right way, but it's been
about a year and a half since I hit a royal. What's happening?"Royal-less streaks happen, and they can get awfully lengthy --- "awful" being a key part of that phrase.
Given expert strategy, we'll hit a royal about once per 40,000 hands, a little more or less often depending on the game and its strategy adaptations. For someone who plays at a steady, but not really speedy, 500 hands an hour, that'll give us a royal about once per 80 hours of play.
But we can't count on that royal being there within 80 hours. With such a rare event, sometimes we'll go two or three times that long without seeing a royal flush. My reader seems to be in one of those streaks now.
Frustrating, but normal.
As for the question of whether expert strategy helps you hit more royals, the answer is not necessarily. Expert strategy is designed to maximize the average return on each decision you face, and sometimes that means we'll pass up the chance at a royal.
For example, playing 9-6 Jacks or Better and dealt Queens of clubs, diamonds and spades, along with a King and a 10 of diamonds, do you hold the three of a kind, or do you hold King-Queen-10 of diamonds?
If you hold the three Queens, you have no chance at a royal flush. If you hold the three diamonds, you'll draw a royal once per 1,081 hands. Still, holding the three Queens is a much, much better play. You're assured of three of a kind, and have a chance at a full house or four of a kind. Your average return is 21.5 coins per five wagered, compared with 6.7 coins if you hold the three diamonds.
You could hit more royals by using a "go for it" strategy in which you always discard cards that get in the way of royal possibilities. You'd also lose a lot of money using it.
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
WSOP Circuit stops at Horseshoe Hammond
The World Series of Poker has been a classic event ---
perhaps THE classic event --- ever since its founding in 1970. At the first
event, Benny Binion invited seven top players to his Horseshoe Casino in
downtown Las Vegas.
After competing not only in Hold’em, but in seven-card stud, razz, five-card
stud and lowball, Johnny Moss was elected World Champion by his competitors.
The next year, the Texas Hold’em, winner-take-all tournament
format that players know and love was adopted.
Nowadays, the World
Series of Poker goes on tour, with the big tournament still in Las Vegas every year, but WSOP Circuit events
around the country throughout the year. The Chicago
area stop is going on now at Horseshoe Casino in Hammond.
The Horseshoe Hammond event got under way on Thursday, Oct.
17, and runs through Monday, Oct. 28. It’s the fifth stop on a 22-city tour
this season. It’s also the largest WSOP Circuit event.
According to a news release, more than 12,000 players are
expected to compete at Horseshoe for more than $2.5 million in guaranteed total
prize money. The festival will feature 12 tournaments across a wide range of
buy-ins, formats and variants. Event highlights include Event No. 1 with a
$500,000 guarantee and event No. 10 with a $2 million guarantee.
Horseshoe Hammond also hosted
the fourth annual Chicago Poker Classic earlier this year, a 13-day festival
that attracted some of the Chicago
area’s best players. With a $1 million guaranteed opening event and more than
$600,000 added to prize pools, satellites, cash game promotions and daily
tournaments, the Chicago Poker Classic was the richest Chicago poker festival outside of the WSOP Circuit.
When the WSOP event is over, I’ll relay some of the
highlights in this blog. Meanwhile, you can
check out Horseshoe’s site at www.horseshoehammond.com.
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
Lynyrd Skynyrd, Steppenwolf wrap up Grand Victoria concert series
I don't get around to the Chicago area casinos as much as I did when I was writing a regular casinos column for the Chicago Sun-Times, so I appreciate it when the casinos pass along information on what's going on.
Grand Victoria Casino in Elgin, in partnership with Onesti Entertainment, hosted a Summer Jackpot Series of concerts outdoors at Festival Park, adjacent to the casino Marilou Pilman of Grand Vic passed along information on the final show of the season. The Oct. 13 finale featured Southern rock legends Lynyrd Skynyrd, along with John Kay and Steppenwolf.
“You have all the makings of another Woodstock,” John Kay of Steppenwolf told the crowd. “But a lot more
fun.”
I don't know about Woodstock, but I'm sure anyone who every fancied themselves as "Born to Be Wild" or yelled "Freebird" to any band playing anywhere had a great time.
In a press release,. Grand Victoria general manager Jim Thomason said, “Our goal was to draw thousands of people to downtown
Elgin. This year was a test and due to
the huge success of these shows, we are already working on next year’s
lineup. ‘The City of Elgin was very instrumental in
orchestrating all the moving pieces it takes to put on shows of this
magnitude.”
This year's series opened Aug. 24 with Joan Jett and the Blackhearts along with Eric Burdon and the Animals. The second show, on Sept. 24, featured Grand Funk Railroad and Night Ranger.
For more
information on the casino and its special events, visit grandvictoriacasino.com.
Friday, September 27, 2013
G2E Day 3, visting Bally and Titanic
On the final day of Global Gaming Expo in Las Vegas, my final tour of slot manufacturers' booths sent me searching for folks who know more about ships than I do. On its new Titanic slots, Bally Technologies kicks off bonus events with a U Spin turn. By now, you know how U Spin works. You touch the screen to move a wheel back and forth, and let fly to give it a spin.
On Titanic, a key U Spin is on the ship's control that's marked off into segments including slow, full half and stop, both for ahead and astern. That seemed like a lot of words, so I wanted to know what the device was called. For a quick answer, I turned to an online community, a message board consisting mainly of University of Illinois sports fans.
I got my answer within four minutes of asking. It's the engine order telegraph.
The engine order telegraph is important in Titanic, a feature-rich games filled with movie clips and iconic symbols. The celebration for big wins includes the famous moment in the movie when Leonardo DiCaprio as Jack Dawson stands on the prow and shouts for the planet to hear, "I'm king of the world!" Slot playing kings and queens also see coins flying across the screen during the classic scene.
On the Titanic game, the engine order telegraph segments are for bonus event launches and other awards. When Bally's Mike Trask showed the game features, a U Spin of the engine order telegraph took us to the segment marked Safe.
In the Safe feature, it was time to U Spin again, this time on the ship's safe's combination lock. A single spin brought a credit award, opened the door and took us into a finely appointed ship's room. There, we got to pick icons --- a vase, a table, a woman standing in the room --- to collect bonuses.
Another event plays off Dawson's sketching skills. A drawing scene plays, and three sketches are displayed. A match game follows, with players doing a little virtual scratch off until they select three copies of the same drawing. That determines bet size on free spins to come.
Slot players who loved the movie will find plenty to like, regardless of whether they've ever heard of an engine order telegraph.
On Titanic, a key U Spin is on the ship's control that's marked off into segments including slow, full half and stop, both for ahead and astern. That seemed like a lot of words, so I wanted to know what the device was called. For a quick answer, I turned to an online community, a message board consisting mainly of University of Illinois sports fans.
I got my answer within four minutes of asking. It's the engine order telegraph.
The engine order telegraph is important in Titanic, a feature-rich games filled with movie clips and iconic symbols. The celebration for big wins includes the famous moment in the movie when Leonardo DiCaprio as Jack Dawson stands on the prow and shouts for the planet to hear, "I'm king of the world!" Slot playing kings and queens also see coins flying across the screen during the classic scene.
On the Titanic game, the engine order telegraph segments are for bonus event launches and other awards. When Bally's Mike Trask showed the game features, a U Spin of the engine order telegraph took us to the segment marked Safe.
In the Safe feature, it was time to U Spin again, this time on the ship's safe's combination lock. A single spin brought a credit award, opened the door and took us into a finely appointed ship's room. There, we got to pick icons --- a vase, a table, a woman standing in the room --- to collect bonuses.
Another event plays off Dawson's sketching skills. A drawing scene plays, and three sketches are displayed. A match game follows, with players doing a little virtual scratch off until they select three copies of the same drawing. That determines bet size on free spins to come.
Slot players who loved the movie will find plenty to like, regardless of whether they've ever heard of an engine order telegraph.
Thursday, September 26, 2013
G2E, day 2, Aristocrat, Spielo, Konami
A few notes from Global Gaming Expo, Day 2:
**After two days of being accosted by zombies near the exhibit hall --- they growled at me, but ultimately parted enough that I could get through without turning undead --- I got my chance to see Aristocrat's The Walking Dead game through its license with AMC. It's feature rich, with Reel Growth extending reels 2, 3, 4 and 5 up an extra 1 to 3 spaces for added potential wins. In The Horde bonus, the Horde invades the screen and leaves wild symbols behind. As Aristocrat's Dallas Orchard demoed the game, a zombie took a shot in the head, splattering blood --- and wild symbols --- across the reels. When the blood starts flowing, it's good for the players.
**Spielo's Sphinx 3D is spectacular. Sphinx has been a great title for Spielo (formerly Atronic) for a long time, and in the new version, the 3-D effects are spectacular. As Mike Brennan, who was showing me the game watched, the coins from a big win seemed to jump right off the screen, and right at me. I reach out and grasped, and told him I'd like to take some of those coins right now.
Stacked wilds here are really stacked wilds. Coin-shaped discs depicting a scarab stack up on the same reel position. As the stack grows, it increases the number of times a winner is collected. At one point, I had a winner that included a stack of five scarabs. I collected the 250 credit win once, and a scarab disk was taken away. That was repeated, repeated, repeated and repeated again, until the last scarab had been used, I got the 250-coin win five times. It's a new way of stacking wilds that would work effectively only with great 3D.
**One of the pleasures of G2E is experiencing game features without investing any money. At the Konami booth, I sampled The Force of Legend, an Xtra Reward Game featuring Action Stacked Symbols The lion was a wild symbol, and each lion expanded into a stack to fill a three-symbol column. I triggered a bonus event, and had to choose credits or 45 spins under Konami's Balance of Fortune mechanic. I choose spins, and on No. 44 triggered 150 more. The total for 195 spins: $1,524.50 in imaginary money for a $4.50 imaginary bet.
**After two days of being accosted by zombies near the exhibit hall --- they growled at me, but ultimately parted enough that I could get through without turning undead --- I got my chance to see Aristocrat's The Walking Dead game through its license with AMC. It's feature rich, with Reel Growth extending reels 2, 3, 4 and 5 up an extra 1 to 3 spaces for added potential wins. In The Horde bonus, the Horde invades the screen and leaves wild symbols behind. As Aristocrat's Dallas Orchard demoed the game, a zombie took a shot in the head, splattering blood --- and wild symbols --- across the reels. When the blood starts flowing, it's good for the players.
**Spielo's Sphinx 3D is spectacular. Sphinx has been a great title for Spielo (formerly Atronic) for a long time, and in the new version, the 3-D effects are spectacular. As Mike Brennan, who was showing me the game watched, the coins from a big win seemed to jump right off the screen, and right at me. I reach out and grasped, and told him I'd like to take some of those coins right now.
Stacked wilds here are really stacked wilds. Coin-shaped discs depicting a scarab stack up on the same reel position. As the stack grows, it increases the number of times a winner is collected. At one point, I had a winner that included a stack of five scarabs. I collected the 250 credit win once, and a scarab disk was taken away. That was repeated, repeated, repeated and repeated again, until the last scarab had been used, I got the 250-coin win five times. It's a new way of stacking wilds that would work effectively only with great 3D.
**One of the pleasures of G2E is experiencing game features without investing any money. At the Konami booth, I sampled The Force of Legend, an Xtra Reward Game featuring Action Stacked Symbols The lion was a wild symbol, and each lion expanded into a stack to fill a three-symbol column. I triggered a bonus event, and had to choose credits or 45 spins under Konami's Balance of Fortune mechanic. I choose spins, and on No. 44 triggered 150 more. The total for 195 spins: $1,524.50 in imaginary money for a $4.50 imaginary bet.
Wednesday, September 25, 2013
Notes from G2E, Day 1
On the first day of Global Gaming Expo in Las Vegas, I toured the booths of Incredible Technologies, WMS Gaming and International Game Technology. I also looked in on some new table games, but that's a subject for another time.
Impressions of the beginning of the long march through the slotmakers' booths, with one game from each:
**Incredible's second King of Bling game, Bounce 2 Nite, is a blast, with a couple of new features, One is Iced Out, triggered by diamond symbols on the first two reels. The diamonds are held, and everything else goes into respin mode. The diamonds dance, bounce, sway and spin in time to the music, and the tempo picks up as the wins mount. The respins continue as long as they bring more diamonds, which lock into place. The goal is to ice out the screen, covering it in diamonds.
The Bounce 2 Nite feature involves bouncing a flashy car. Touch the front left bumper, and it raises and bounces down with a crash, revealing bonus credits. Touch other areas of the car, and they bounce too. The awards are random, not determined by where you touch the car. Focus groups just liked making it bounce.
**WMS has much, much to offer, and I can't possibly do justice by focusing on one game. There'll be more to come in magazines and in my syndicated column, but for now. I loved its new Iron Man game, with plenty of images, sounds and clips from the movie. Bonus rounds are iconic. Slot players will love seeing the Jericho missiles fired onto the screen to create winners.
The playing field has 5 reels, each 12 symbols deep. The center 5x4 section is the bonus zone. You need the bonus characters to land in the zone to launch the bonus events. When Black Widow shows up, you want her in the bonus zone.
**IGT is involved in all market segments, and I'll be writing about its Megajackpots and video poker games later. One core game I had fun testing was Centipede, with its skill-based bonus. IGT went for an old-school video game feel, and it really game through.
In the bonus event, you use a joystick to move into position, then one of four buttons to fire at the crawling centipede, elimnating some segments for bonuses and sending the remnants on their separate ways. I did destroy the first centipede to move to level 2, but alas, could not advance again. I still got a nice bonus, and a lot of fun.
Impressions of the beginning of the long march through the slotmakers' booths, with one game from each:
**Incredible's second King of Bling game, Bounce 2 Nite, is a blast, with a couple of new features, One is Iced Out, triggered by diamond symbols on the first two reels. The diamonds are held, and everything else goes into respin mode. The diamonds dance, bounce, sway and spin in time to the music, and the tempo picks up as the wins mount. The respins continue as long as they bring more diamonds, which lock into place. The goal is to ice out the screen, covering it in diamonds.
The Bounce 2 Nite feature involves bouncing a flashy car. Touch the front left bumper, and it raises and bounces down with a crash, revealing bonus credits. Touch other areas of the car, and they bounce too. The awards are random, not determined by where you touch the car. Focus groups just liked making it bounce.
**WMS has much, much to offer, and I can't possibly do justice by focusing on one game. There'll be more to come in magazines and in my syndicated column, but for now. I loved its new Iron Man game, with plenty of images, sounds and clips from the movie. Bonus rounds are iconic. Slot players will love seeing the Jericho missiles fired onto the screen to create winners.
The playing field has 5 reels, each 12 symbols deep. The center 5x4 section is the bonus zone. You need the bonus characters to land in the zone to launch the bonus events. When Black Widow shows up, you want her in the bonus zone.
**IGT is involved in all market segments, and I'll be writing about its Megajackpots and video poker games later. One core game I had fun testing was Centipede, with its skill-based bonus. IGT went for an old-school video game feel, and it really game through.
In the bonus event, you use a joystick to move into position, then one of four buttons to fire at the crawling centipede, elimnating some segments for bonuses and sending the remnants on their separate ways. I did destroy the first centipede to move to level 2, but alas, could not advance again. I still got a nice bonus, and a lot of fun.
Monday, September 23, 2013
A geezer in Las Vegas
I'm well into my third decade of coming to Las Vegas on a regular basis, anywhere from once to four times a year, depending on assignments and schedule. I usually stay away from the Strip, at joints that cater to locals. I need neither the glitz, the crowds nor the bad blackjack rules and weak video poker pay tables of the Strip.
This is a six-night stay, and it's the first three that give me a chance to play a little. I have meetings and tasks to attend to, but quite a bit of free time. So I'm at Sam's Town. I mentioned the full-pay Deuces Wild, but Sam's also has 10-7-5 Double Bonus Poker and 10-6 Double Double Bonus Poker, both 100 percent games with expert play.
I also played some blackjack, two decks, hand-shuffled, face-down game where the blackjacks paid 3-2 instead of the 6-5 abominations you find on the Strip. The dealer asked what brought me to town, and I said a trade show. When he asked which one and I told him Global Gaming Expo, he replied, "That's a big show. I'd think you'd want to be on the Strip." I told him I never stay on the Strip, I've been coming to Vegas ... and he finished my sentence. "You've been coming for decades and you don't need the Strip. Yeah, we see that."
It was a little confusing for the young woman at the Enterprise desk at the car rental center, though. She asked where I was staying and whether I needed a map. I told her I'd be at Sam's Town, and knew my way if she could tell me the shortest way out of the rental center to eastbound Flamingo. She gave me the three-right-turns directions that take you to the Strip, Las Vegas Boulevard. I told her I was trying to avoid Las Vegas Boulevard, and she looked confused.
A second person, a 30ish man, walked me to the car to inspect it before I drove away. He also asked if I needed directions. This time, I was more specific. I said, "I'm staying at Sam's Town. Is one of the turns out of here Warm Springs?" He said, "Warm Springs is your second right. Then ... "
I stopped him and asked another question. "If I turn left on Warm Springs instead of right, can I then take a left on Eastern to get to Flamingo east?" He paused for a second, and said, "Yes, in fact that'll probably be a lot faster."
It was.
This is a six-night stay, and it's the first three that give me a chance to play a little. I have meetings and tasks to attend to, but quite a bit of free time. So I'm at Sam's Town. I mentioned the full-pay Deuces Wild, but Sam's also has 10-7-5 Double Bonus Poker and 10-6 Double Double Bonus Poker, both 100 percent games with expert play.
I also played some blackjack, two decks, hand-shuffled, face-down game where the blackjacks paid 3-2 instead of the 6-5 abominations you find on the Strip. The dealer asked what brought me to town, and I said a trade show. When he asked which one and I told him Global Gaming Expo, he replied, "That's a big show. I'd think you'd want to be on the Strip." I told him I never stay on the Strip, I've been coming to Vegas ... and he finished my sentence. "You've been coming for decades and you don't need the Strip. Yeah, we see that."
It was a little confusing for the young woman at the Enterprise desk at the car rental center, though. She asked where I was staying and whether I needed a map. I told her I'd be at Sam's Town, and knew my way if she could tell me the shortest way out of the rental center to eastbound Flamingo. She gave me the three-right-turns directions that take you to the Strip, Las Vegas Boulevard. I told her I was trying to avoid Las Vegas Boulevard, and she looked confused.
A second person, a 30ish man, walked me to the car to inspect it before I drove away. He also asked if I needed directions. This time, I was more specific. I said, "I'm staying at Sam's Town. Is one of the turns out of here Warm Springs?" He said, "Warm Springs is your second right. Then ... "
I stopped him and asked another question. "If I turn left on Warm Springs instead of right, can I then take a left on Eastern to get to Flamingo east?" He paused for a second, and said, "Yes, in fact that'll probably be a lot faster."
It was.
Full-pay Deuces Wild at Sam's Town
I'm in Las Vegas for Global Gaming Expo, which opens Tuesday. Soon, I'll be posting details of some new games at the show.
Sunday was more or less a play day for me. I had dinner with several other writers, including Henry Tamburin, Linda Boyd and Steve Bourie, who publishes the annual American Casino Guide. Steve was our host, and Henry, Linda and I all recorded videos for him that will be posted on YouTube in the coming months.
We were at Sam's Town, and Sam's has what has become a rare treat --- full-pay Deuces Wild. With expert play, it's a 100.8 percent return. For many years, it was my standby when the Tropicana was giving me room and meal comps, and sending a limo to get me at the airport. On one memorable session, I drew four 2s, and 1,000 quarters poured into the tray. Ten minutes later, I did it again. Sweet!
Alas, no more. Hardly anyone has it anymore.
I didn't get the four-deuce, 1,000-quarter bonanza this time, but had a fun session nonetheless. I started with a ticket for $52.50 from a previous session. The deuces were not kind for my first 20 minutes. I was down to my last $1.25, when I drew five of a kind for a nice 75-coin pay. Two hand later, I held once 2, and drew another 2 and three high clubs for a wild royal. Another 125 quarters, and I was in business.
The four of a kinds I wasn't getting early started to roll in. Soon I was up to $60, and settled into a little equilibrium. There were little cold streaks where I dipped below $50, and little hot streaks where I sneaked past $70. Finally, an hour and a half after my session-saving five of a kind, I cashed out for $80.
Not the biggest win in history, but a good time.
Sunday was more or less a play day for me. I had dinner with several other writers, including Henry Tamburin, Linda Boyd and Steve Bourie, who publishes the annual American Casino Guide. Steve was our host, and Henry, Linda and I all recorded videos for him that will be posted on YouTube in the coming months.
We were at Sam's Town, and Sam's has what has become a rare treat --- full-pay Deuces Wild. With expert play, it's a 100.8 percent return. For many years, it was my standby when the Tropicana was giving me room and meal comps, and sending a limo to get me at the airport. On one memorable session, I drew four 2s, and 1,000 quarters poured into the tray. Ten minutes later, I did it again. Sweet!
Alas, no more. Hardly anyone has it anymore.
I didn't get the four-deuce, 1,000-quarter bonanza this time, but had a fun session nonetheless. I started with a ticket for $52.50 from a previous session. The deuces were not kind for my first 20 minutes. I was down to my last $1.25, when I drew five of a kind for a nice 75-coin pay. Two hand later, I held once 2, and drew another 2 and three high clubs for a wild royal. Another 125 quarters, and I was in business.
The four of a kinds I wasn't getting early started to roll in. Soon I was up to $60, and settled into a little equilibrium. There were little cold streaks where I dipped below $50, and little hot streaks where I sneaked past $70. Finally, an hour and a half after my session-saving five of a kind, I cashed out for $80.
Not the biggest win in history, but a good time.
Tuesday, September 17, 2013
Readers ask about video keno, slot jackpots, single-deck blackjack
Question. I never see much written about video keno,
but that's just about all my husband and I play. I was wondering if you
could solve a question for us. My husband says that it doesn't matter
what numbers you pick, that when the machine's ready to pay off, it'll
pay off. You just have to be in the right place in the right time, just
like a slot machine.
Don't the numbers matter at all?
Answer. The numbers you pick do matter. Video keno machines have random number generators, just like any slot machine. But the video keno RNGs are just generating the numbers to be drawn, and if your numbers match the RNG's, you win. You can't win if you don't have the numbers that are drawn on that play.
Every number has an equal chance of being selected. In the basic game with 80 numbers, and 20 drawn per play, each number has a 1 in 4 chance of being among those 20.
The house doesn't get its edge on video keno from making sure there are more losers than winners. It gets its edge from paying less than true odds when you do win. Let's use the simplest example: A one-spot play.
Your number has a 1 in 4 chance of being drawn. If video keno were an even game, your winner would pay 3-1 odds --- in an average four plays, you'd lose three times, but get back all four wagers on the one time your number hit. But most machines that allow one-spots give back only three coins on the winner. The coin you don't get paid is the house edge.
Meanwhile, the random number generator just keeps generating numbers to be drawn. For you to win, your numbers have to match the machine's. Your selections do matter.
Question. I hit a slot jackpot for $12,500 on a dollar machine. I usually play quarters, so this is by far the largest I ever hit.
The attendant and security guard were very nice, and happy for me. We had high fives all around. They had me sign a tax form. Then the attendant turned a key in the machine before I could play again.
My question is, what does that key do? The man next to me says its resets the machine into "collect" mode, that the machine has just paid out and now it has to take money for a while.
Answer. Congratulations on your big hit. A reason for high fives all around indeed.
As for resetting to "collect" mode, well, no. There is no "collect" or "payback" mode on slot machines. Results remain as random as humans can program a computer to be. And at least until server-based games arrive, changing a payback percentage requires opening the machine and changing a computer chip, not just turning a key or punching in a code.
What the attendant is really doing is unlocking the game so you can play again. The game locks up automatically when an IRS-level jackpot of $1,200 or more is hit. The casino unlocks it once it has your ID and information. Then it has to have you sign the form before it can pay you.
Big jackpots are a normal part of play, and are included in the calculations for the game program. The machine just keeps making its random payoffs, and in time, the jackpot fades into statistical insignificance.
Question. I've studied blackjack basic strategy, so I know when to double down. But when I was playing with a friend of mine recently, he was doubling down on 8s, too. I asked him about it afterward, and he said it was because it was at a single-deck game. Is that right? Why the difference?
Answer. Single-deck blackjack does bring with it some basic strategy changes, and one of them comes when you have a two-card 8. In the single-deck game, you have an edge with an 8 when the dealer shows a 5 or 6, and you want to double down.
Why the difference? Because each card removed from a single-deck game has a greater impact on the composition of the remaining deck than it does in a multiple-deck game. In a single-deck game, taking your 5 and 3 and the dealer's 6 out of a 52-card deck means that 16 of the other 49 cards, or 32.7 percent, are 10 values, and 10-value cards are the dealer's enemy when he or she has a 6 up. In a six-deck game, removing those three cards from play would mean that 96 of the other 309 cards are 10 values, and that's just 31.1 percent.
The dealer in that situation will bust more frequently in a single-deck game than in a multiple-deck game, and that affects our strategy. In addition to the dealer being more likely to bust than in a multiple-deck game, you're more likely to draw a 10-value card on top of your 8. That 18 isn't all-powerful, but it's pretty strong against a 5 or 6.
Don't the numbers matter at all?
Answer. The numbers you pick do matter. Video keno machines have random number generators, just like any slot machine. But the video keno RNGs are just generating the numbers to be drawn, and if your numbers match the RNG's, you win. You can't win if you don't have the numbers that are drawn on that play.
Every number has an equal chance of being selected. In the basic game with 80 numbers, and 20 drawn per play, each number has a 1 in 4 chance of being among those 20.
The house doesn't get its edge on video keno from making sure there are more losers than winners. It gets its edge from paying less than true odds when you do win. Let's use the simplest example: A one-spot play.
Your number has a 1 in 4 chance of being drawn. If video keno were an even game, your winner would pay 3-1 odds --- in an average four plays, you'd lose three times, but get back all four wagers on the one time your number hit. But most machines that allow one-spots give back only three coins on the winner. The coin you don't get paid is the house edge.
Meanwhile, the random number generator just keeps generating numbers to be drawn. For you to win, your numbers have to match the machine's. Your selections do matter.
Question. I hit a slot jackpot for $12,500 on a dollar machine. I usually play quarters, so this is by far the largest I ever hit.
The attendant and security guard were very nice, and happy for me. We had high fives all around. They had me sign a tax form. Then the attendant turned a key in the machine before I could play again.
My question is, what does that key do? The man next to me says its resets the machine into "collect" mode, that the machine has just paid out and now it has to take money for a while.
Answer. Congratulations on your big hit. A reason for high fives all around indeed.
As for resetting to "collect" mode, well, no. There is no "collect" or "payback" mode on slot machines. Results remain as random as humans can program a computer to be. And at least until server-based games arrive, changing a payback percentage requires opening the machine and changing a computer chip, not just turning a key or punching in a code.
What the attendant is really doing is unlocking the game so you can play again. The game locks up automatically when an IRS-level jackpot of $1,200 or more is hit. The casino unlocks it once it has your ID and information. Then it has to have you sign the form before it can pay you.
Big jackpots are a normal part of play, and are included in the calculations for the game program. The machine just keeps making its random payoffs, and in time, the jackpot fades into statistical insignificance.
Question. I've studied blackjack basic strategy, so I know when to double down. But when I was playing with a friend of mine recently, he was doubling down on 8s, too. I asked him about it afterward, and he said it was because it was at a single-deck game. Is that right? Why the difference?
Answer. Single-deck blackjack does bring with it some basic strategy changes, and one of them comes when you have a two-card 8. In the single-deck game, you have an edge with an 8 when the dealer shows a 5 or 6, and you want to double down.
Why the difference? Because each card removed from a single-deck game has a greater impact on the composition of the remaining deck than it does in a multiple-deck game. In a single-deck game, taking your 5 and 3 and the dealer's 6 out of a 52-card deck means that 16 of the other 49 cards, or 32.7 percent, are 10 values, and 10-value cards are the dealer's enemy when he or she has a 6 up. In a six-deck game, removing those three cards from play would mean that 96 of the other 309 cards are 10 values, and that's just 31.1 percent.
The dealer in that situation will bust more frequently in a single-deck game than in a multiple-deck game, and that affects our strategy. In addition to the dealer being more likely to bust than in a multiple-deck game, you're more likely to draw a 10-value card on top of your 8. That 18 isn't all-powerful, but it's pretty strong against a 5 or 6.
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
Should you make the progressive bet at Caribbean Stud?
"Well, should I or shouldn't I?"
The voice belonged to Mark, who had attended a couple of seminars I'd given. I'd seen him in casinos a couple of times before. This time, he was sitting at a Caribbean Stud table as I was passing, checking out available games and table limits.
I stopped and asked what it was he should or shouldn't do.
"Make the progressive bet. It's terrible odds, isn't it? Should I just skip it?"
I didn't want to hold up the game. I told him the bet was a long-shot, but it was his decision. He could find me later if he really wanted a lengthy discussion.
"What the heck," he said. "I came to gamble."
He plunked in his dollar on the progressive bet, and was dealt a pair of 8s. The progressive bet was a loser, but he won on his ante and got his bet back --- the dealer didn't have a qualifying hand.
Mark grinned. "Won enough for a few more bets on the jackpot, anyway."
I moved on, but Mark found me later while I was playing a little video poker.
"Did I catch you at a bad time?"
No, I told him, I was ready for a break.
"So tell me what you really think of that progressive bet? Is it something I should just skip?"
That depends on why you're playing Caribbean Stud, I told him. Are you just relaxing a bit over a game that's easy to play, or are you jackpot hunting?
"A little of both, really. Mostly I play blackjack. Basic strategy stuff --- I never really got into counting cards. Still, you have to pay attention, and when my concentration starts to go, I do something else for a while. Maybe I'll fool around with 20 bucks on the nickel slots, or sometimes I'll play a little Caribbean Stud."
I nodded. Basic strategy for Caribbean Stud is much easier than that for blackjack. The cost is high, though. A blackjack basic strategy player can get the house edge down to about a half percent on a six-deck game, a few tenths more or less depending on house rules. At Caribbean Stud, even if you play well, the house edge is 5.2 percent of the ante or 2.6 percent of total action.
"I know that, and it's a break-time game for me. But I also like the idea that I can win pretty big, pretty fast when the cards run good. You don't have to have great cards, full houses or flushes or anything, but get some two pairs and some three of a kinds and it's really sweet. When you're being paid 2-1 or 3-1 on hands like that instead of just even money like in blackjack, that stack of chips can grow in a hurry."
It can shrink in a hurry, too, I reminded him. Winning hands are much less frequent in Caribbean Stud than in blackjack, and most of the winners are pair or lower hands, or hands in which the dealer doesn't qualify. On those, you'll still get only even money.
"Right, but there's always the chance at a big one, and some real money. I'm not greedy. I know the royal flush is pretty unlikely, but give me 7-1 on a full house and I'm a happy man. Give me 20-1 on four of a kind, and it makes my day. If I throw in the extra dollar and get back another $75 on the full house or $100 on four of a kind --- it's pretty exciting."
I told him the question is whether the excitement is worth it on a bet you win so rarely.
"But if you watch the jackpot level, you can get a pretty decent house edge, right? It's not always an awful bet."
On the standard pay table --- $50 on a flush, $75 on a full house, $100 on four of a kind, either $5,000 or 10 percent of the jackpot on a straight flush or the full jackpot on a royal flush --- the break-even point is about $263,000.
But the house edge isn't the entire issue. Even if the jackpot is very large and the house edge is very low, or players have the edge, the likelihood of winning is very low. In five-card stud poker, there are 2,598,960 possible hands. Only four of those are royal flushes --- one royal per 649,740 hands. The most frequent winners on the progressive bet are flushes --- about one per 509 hands. Add up all the winners, and you'll still average a winner only once per 273 hands.
"And that doesn't change with the bigger jackpot?"
That doesn't change. Frequency of winning hands remains the same, it's only the size of potential rewards that changes.
"But do you know how horrible I'd feel if I got dealt the royal and didn't bet the progressive? I think I'd rather lose the dollars than to risk that."
Then that's your answer, I told him.
"Still, one winner per 273 hands? That's tough," he said, smiling as he left. "I think I'll keep a countdown."
The voice belonged to Mark, who had attended a couple of seminars I'd given. I'd seen him in casinos a couple of times before. This time, he was sitting at a Caribbean Stud table as I was passing, checking out available games and table limits.
I stopped and asked what it was he should or shouldn't do.
"Make the progressive bet. It's terrible odds, isn't it? Should I just skip it?"
I didn't want to hold up the game. I told him the bet was a long-shot, but it was his decision. He could find me later if he really wanted a lengthy discussion.
"What the heck," he said. "I came to gamble."
He plunked in his dollar on the progressive bet, and was dealt a pair of 8s. The progressive bet was a loser, but he won on his ante and got his bet back --- the dealer didn't have a qualifying hand.
Mark grinned. "Won enough for a few more bets on the jackpot, anyway."
I moved on, but Mark found me later while I was playing a little video poker.
"Did I catch you at a bad time?"
No, I told him, I was ready for a break.
"So tell me what you really think of that progressive bet? Is it something I should just skip?"
That depends on why you're playing Caribbean Stud, I told him. Are you just relaxing a bit over a game that's easy to play, or are you jackpot hunting?
"A little of both, really. Mostly I play blackjack. Basic strategy stuff --- I never really got into counting cards. Still, you have to pay attention, and when my concentration starts to go, I do something else for a while. Maybe I'll fool around with 20 bucks on the nickel slots, or sometimes I'll play a little Caribbean Stud."
I nodded. Basic strategy for Caribbean Stud is much easier than that for blackjack. The cost is high, though. A blackjack basic strategy player can get the house edge down to about a half percent on a six-deck game, a few tenths more or less depending on house rules. At Caribbean Stud, even if you play well, the house edge is 5.2 percent of the ante or 2.6 percent of total action.
"I know that, and it's a break-time game for me. But I also like the idea that I can win pretty big, pretty fast when the cards run good. You don't have to have great cards, full houses or flushes or anything, but get some two pairs and some three of a kinds and it's really sweet. When you're being paid 2-1 or 3-1 on hands like that instead of just even money like in blackjack, that stack of chips can grow in a hurry."
It can shrink in a hurry, too, I reminded him. Winning hands are much less frequent in Caribbean Stud than in blackjack, and most of the winners are pair or lower hands, or hands in which the dealer doesn't qualify. On those, you'll still get only even money.
"Right, but there's always the chance at a big one, and some real money. I'm not greedy. I know the royal flush is pretty unlikely, but give me 7-1 on a full house and I'm a happy man. Give me 20-1 on four of a kind, and it makes my day. If I throw in the extra dollar and get back another $75 on the full house or $100 on four of a kind --- it's pretty exciting."
I told him the question is whether the excitement is worth it on a bet you win so rarely.
"But if you watch the jackpot level, you can get a pretty decent house edge, right? It's not always an awful bet."
On the standard pay table --- $50 on a flush, $75 on a full house, $100 on four of a kind, either $5,000 or 10 percent of the jackpot on a straight flush or the full jackpot on a royal flush --- the break-even point is about $263,000.
But the house edge isn't the entire issue. Even if the jackpot is very large and the house edge is very low, or players have the edge, the likelihood of winning is very low. In five-card stud poker, there are 2,598,960 possible hands. Only four of those are royal flushes --- one royal per 649,740 hands. The most frequent winners on the progressive bet are flushes --- about one per 509 hands. Add up all the winners, and you'll still average a winner only once per 273 hands.
"And that doesn't change with the bigger jackpot?"
That doesn't change. Frequency of winning hands remains the same, it's only the size of potential rewards that changes.
"But do you know how horrible I'd feel if I got dealt the royal and didn't bet the progressive? I think I'd rather lose the dollars than to risk that."
Then that's your answer, I told him.
"Still, one winner per 273 hands? That's tough," he said, smiling as he left. "I think I'll keep a countdown."
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
Readers ask about blackjack, slots
Question. What percentage of blackjack players do
you think are counting cards? Half? I just wonder, when I see players
splitting 6s against a 10. They can't be counting cards.
Answer. I doubt that half of blackjack players in casinos have studied a basic strategy chart, let alone count cards. I'd put the number of card counters at less than 1 percent of the blackjack-playing population.
Before any player who is trying to get better worries about counting cards, he or she must master basic strategy first. An average blackjack player faces a house edge of about 2 to 2.5 percent. Learning basic strategy can cut that house edge to around a half percent or less, depending on house rules.
How can you tell if someone at your table is a basic strategy player? Here are a few common moves that separate those who know their basic from those who don't:, assuming a multiple-deck game.
Card counters will sometimes make plays that run counter to basic strategy. In addition to hitting 12 against a 2 or 3, a counter will sometimes also hit 12 against 4, if the composition of the remaining cards is right. A card counter also will sometimes hit 16 against 10, but not 16 vs. 7.
Insurance is a special case. Intuition players often will insure their blackjacks by taking even money when the dealer has an Ace face up. Basic strategy players will never take insurance --- that's the right play most of the time. Card counters, on the other hand, will take insurance if the remaining deck includes a high enough percentage of high cards.
Look around next time you play. See how many players hem, haw and sometimes stand on 16 vs. 7, or fail to split 8s against a 10, or stand on Ace-7 against a 9. That'll tell you just how few basic strategy players there are --- and there are many, many few card counters.
Question. I would like to know if adding say $1,000 to a slot machine loosens that machine for a big payout.
Also, I always play the max. Does it matter what the denomination of the game is? That is, do the games loosen as the denomination rises? Does a $1 game pay more than a penny slot played at maximum?
Answer. No amount of play changes the odds of hitting a winning combination on slot machines. If the game is programmed so that there is a 1 in 10,000 chance of hitting the big jackpot, then there is a 1 in 10,000 chance on every spin. If you've just hit the jackpot, the odds are still in 1 in 10,000; if you've played 9,999 spins without hitting the big jackpot, the odds are STILL 1 in 10,000.
(The 1 in 10,000 is just an example, by the way. Some machines hit more frequently, some much less. There are machines with a 1 in 2,000 chance of hitting the top jackpot, while in a big-money game like Megabucks the chances are 1 in tens of millions.)
If it's a progressive machine, adding money to the top jackpot does not change the odds of your hitting that jackpot. If the progressive meter starts at $1,000, and the jackpot meter has grown to $2,000, the chances of winning are the same as when you started. The long-term payback percentage does grow with the progressive meter, because the big hit pays more when it finally comes.
As for changing coin denomination, that DOES make a difference. Generally, penny machines pay less than nickel machines, which pay less than quarters, which pay less than dollars and so on. If you play maximum coins on a penny machine, your bet may be as large as if you're playing a three-reel dollar slot, but in most cases the dollar game will have a higher payback percentage.
Of course, there's also a difference in the play experience between a penny video slot and a dollar reel-spinner. Winning spins are more frequent on the video game, but payoffs of many times your wager are more common on the reel-spinner. The penny game will keep you in your seat longer, but the dollar game gives you a better chance of walking away with a fairly substantial win. That's the choice slot players face when deciding between low-denomination video games and higher denomination reel spinners.
Answer. I doubt that half of blackjack players in casinos have studied a basic strategy chart, let alone count cards. I'd put the number of card counters at less than 1 percent of the blackjack-playing population.
Before any player who is trying to get better worries about counting cards, he or she must master basic strategy first. An average blackjack player faces a house edge of about 2 to 2.5 percent. Learning basic strategy can cut that house edge to around a half percent or less, depending on house rules.
How can you tell if someone at your table is a basic strategy player? Here are a few common moves that separate those who know their basic from those who don't:, assuming a multiple-deck game.
- A basic strategy player hits hard 16 when the dealer shows a 7. Every time.
- A basic strategy player splits Aces, and splits 8s, even when the dealer has a 10 face up. Exception: The basic strategy player will surrender on 8-8 if the dealer hits soft 17 and surrender is offered.
- A basic strategy player never stands on soft 17. He or she hits or doubles down, depending on the dealer's face up card.
- A basic strategy player hits on 12 if the dealer shows a 2 or a 3.
- A basic strategy player hits on soft 18 if the dealer shows a 9, 10 or Ace.
Card counters will sometimes make plays that run counter to basic strategy. In addition to hitting 12 against a 2 or 3, a counter will sometimes also hit 12 against 4, if the composition of the remaining cards is right. A card counter also will sometimes hit 16 against 10, but not 16 vs. 7.
Insurance is a special case. Intuition players often will insure their blackjacks by taking even money when the dealer has an Ace face up. Basic strategy players will never take insurance --- that's the right play most of the time. Card counters, on the other hand, will take insurance if the remaining deck includes a high enough percentage of high cards.
Look around next time you play. See how many players hem, haw and sometimes stand on 16 vs. 7, or fail to split 8s against a 10, or stand on Ace-7 against a 9. That'll tell you just how few basic strategy players there are --- and there are many, many few card counters.
Question. I would like to know if adding say $1,000 to a slot machine loosens that machine for a big payout.
Also, I always play the max. Does it matter what the denomination of the game is? That is, do the games loosen as the denomination rises? Does a $1 game pay more than a penny slot played at maximum?
Answer. No amount of play changes the odds of hitting a winning combination on slot machines. If the game is programmed so that there is a 1 in 10,000 chance of hitting the big jackpot, then there is a 1 in 10,000 chance on every spin. If you've just hit the jackpot, the odds are still in 1 in 10,000; if you've played 9,999 spins without hitting the big jackpot, the odds are STILL 1 in 10,000.
(The 1 in 10,000 is just an example, by the way. Some machines hit more frequently, some much less. There are machines with a 1 in 2,000 chance of hitting the top jackpot, while in a big-money game like Megabucks the chances are 1 in tens of millions.)
If it's a progressive machine, adding money to the top jackpot does not change the odds of your hitting that jackpot. If the progressive meter starts at $1,000, and the jackpot meter has grown to $2,000, the chances of winning are the same as when you started. The long-term payback percentage does grow with the progressive meter, because the big hit pays more when it finally comes.
As for changing coin denomination, that DOES make a difference. Generally, penny machines pay less than nickel machines, which pay less than quarters, which pay less than dollars and so on. If you play maximum coins on a penny machine, your bet may be as large as if you're playing a three-reel dollar slot, but in most cases the dollar game will have a higher payback percentage.
Of course, there's also a difference in the play experience between a penny video slot and a dollar reel-spinner. Winning spins are more frequent on the video game, but payoffs of many times your wager are more common on the reel-spinner. The penny game will keep you in your seat longer, but the dollar game gives you a better chance of walking away with a fairly substantial win. That's the choice slot players face when deciding between low-denomination video games and higher denomination reel spinners.
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
Myths and legends, table games edition
In any casino game, there are myths and legends, things people believe that don't quite square with reality. Let's take on a few myths from a table games
player perspective.
MYTH: The third baseman is a team player, and shouldn't take the dealer's bust card. A third baseman hitting 12 when the dealer has a 2, for example, is hurting the entire table.
FACT: A player hitting in that situation helps the rest of the table as often as he hurts it. Anyway, it's the best play for his hand. Hitting 12 against 2 is what he SHOULD do.
Wouldn't it be nice if we knew whether or not the next card in the deck would make the dealer's hand go bust? Problem is, we don't know what the dealer has face down, and we don't know what the next card is. Sitting at third base, I've drawn a 9 to my 12 for a 21, had the dealer turn up a 10-value card, then draw another 10 to bust. The entire table won, but if I hadn't hit, the dealer would have had a 9 and the whole table would have lost.
I've also drawn a card that would have busted the dealer. Most often, though, the dealer has something less than a 10-value face down, and NO one-card draw can bust the dealer's hand.
Unless other players are willing to pay for losses, the third baseman's responsibility is to make the play that's best for his or her own hand.
MYTH: A hot craps table is likely to stay hot, a cold table is likely to stay cold.
FACT: Average results on a table after a hot streak are the same as after a cold streak. Odds of the game don't change, regardless of how hot or cold the shooters have bene.
Craps players are always looking for hot tables, and avoiding cold ones. But unless you're dealing with controlled rollers, a la Frank Scoblete and his Golden Touch Craps team, I've never really seen a reason why a hot table should stay hot, or a cold table stay cold. We are dealing with dice, after all, that don't know what the previous results have been.
Several years ago, I put it to the test. For nearly a year, every time I was in a casino in the Midwest, South and in Nevada, I stopped by a craps table, waited until I saw two consecutive passes, then tracked the result of the next decision -- not as good a sample as a million-hand computer run, but a lot more time-consuming.
The result: Pass bettors won 489 wagers and lost 511 on the next sequence after two consecutive wins. There was no tendency for the dice to stay hot.
I also watched 1,000 trials that started with two don't passes, then charted the next decision. The dice passed 496 times in those 1,000 trials a mere three more passes than the expected average. There was no tendency for cold dice to stay cold, either.
Now, a thousand trials each way isn't enough to satisfy a statistician, but if hot tables stay hot and cold tables stay cold, well, you can't prove it by me.
MYTH: Just as in blackjack, counting cards can help you win.
FACT: Counting cards in baccarat doesn't help in any practical way.
Favorable situations in baccarat are really rare. The late Peter Griffin wrote in The Theory of Blackjack that a baccarat player who doesn't bet unless he has an advantage can squeeze an edge of about 0.7 percent of his maximum bets on banker and player. However, that player might play only about three hands per eight hours. That's watching, not playing.
For bets on ties, it's theoretically possible to count down to a 24 percent edge with six cards remaining, provided all the cards are dealt out.
In the real world, nobody deals out all the cards, and with one-half deck cut out of play, the bettor's potential edge on the last hand shrinks to just 0.08 percent. With just a small reservation, we can say the myth of the baccarat card counter is JUST a myth.
MYTH: An experienced roulette dealer can make the ball land where he pleases.
FACT: Dealers I know scoff at the notion they can hit a number at will. With the wheel spinning one way, the ball going in the opposite direction, bouncing on the surface and from fret to fret separating the numbers, there are far too many physical variables for a dealer to control where the ball will land.
Anyway, the last thing the casino wants is a dealer who can hit a number at will. As long as the results are random, the casino makes its money. However, if a dealer could control what numbers were coming up, there'd be a chance someone would be in on the secret and take a lot of money from the casino. Random games mean big profits for the operators. Taking the randomness out increases operator risk.
MYTH: The third baseman is a team player, and shouldn't take the dealer's bust card. A third baseman hitting 12 when the dealer has a 2, for example, is hurting the entire table.
FACT: A player hitting in that situation helps the rest of the table as often as he hurts it. Anyway, it's the best play for his hand. Hitting 12 against 2 is what he SHOULD do.
Wouldn't it be nice if we knew whether or not the next card in the deck would make the dealer's hand go bust? Problem is, we don't know what the dealer has face down, and we don't know what the next card is. Sitting at third base, I've drawn a 9 to my 12 for a 21, had the dealer turn up a 10-value card, then draw another 10 to bust. The entire table won, but if I hadn't hit, the dealer would have had a 9 and the whole table would have lost.
I've also drawn a card that would have busted the dealer. Most often, though, the dealer has something less than a 10-value face down, and NO one-card draw can bust the dealer's hand.
Unless other players are willing to pay for losses, the third baseman's responsibility is to make the play that's best for his or her own hand.
MYTH: A hot craps table is likely to stay hot, a cold table is likely to stay cold.
FACT: Average results on a table after a hot streak are the same as after a cold streak. Odds of the game don't change, regardless of how hot or cold the shooters have bene.
Craps players are always looking for hot tables, and avoiding cold ones. But unless you're dealing with controlled rollers, a la Frank Scoblete and his Golden Touch Craps team, I've never really seen a reason why a hot table should stay hot, or a cold table stay cold. We are dealing with dice, after all, that don't know what the previous results have been.
Several years ago, I put it to the test. For nearly a year, every time I was in a casino in the Midwest, South and in Nevada, I stopped by a craps table, waited until I saw two consecutive passes, then tracked the result of the next decision -- not as good a sample as a million-hand computer run, but a lot more time-consuming.
The result: Pass bettors won 489 wagers and lost 511 on the next sequence after two consecutive wins. There was no tendency for the dice to stay hot.
I also watched 1,000 trials that started with two don't passes, then charted the next decision. The dice passed 496 times in those 1,000 trials a mere three more passes than the expected average. There was no tendency for cold dice to stay cold, either.
Now, a thousand trials each way isn't enough to satisfy a statistician, but if hot tables stay hot and cold tables stay cold, well, you can't prove it by me.
MYTH: Just as in blackjack, counting cards can help you win.
FACT: Counting cards in baccarat doesn't help in any practical way.
Favorable situations in baccarat are really rare. The late Peter Griffin wrote in The Theory of Blackjack that a baccarat player who doesn't bet unless he has an advantage can squeeze an edge of about 0.7 percent of his maximum bets on banker and player. However, that player might play only about three hands per eight hours. That's watching, not playing.
For bets on ties, it's theoretically possible to count down to a 24 percent edge with six cards remaining, provided all the cards are dealt out.
In the real world, nobody deals out all the cards, and with one-half deck cut out of play, the bettor's potential edge on the last hand shrinks to just 0.08 percent. With just a small reservation, we can say the myth of the baccarat card counter is JUST a myth.
MYTH: An experienced roulette dealer can make the ball land where he pleases.
FACT: Dealers I know scoff at the notion they can hit a number at will. With the wheel spinning one way, the ball going in the opposite direction, bouncing on the surface and from fret to fret separating the numbers, there are far too many physical variables for a dealer to control where the ball will land.
Anyway, the last thing the casino wants is a dealer who can hit a number at will. As long as the results are random, the casino makes its money. However, if a dealer could control what numbers were coming up, there'd be a chance someone would be in on the secret and take a lot of money from the casino. Random games mean big profits for the operators. Taking the randomness out increases operator risk.
Monday, August 26, 2013
Rare strategy quirk in a Deuces Wild practice session
Practice may not make perfect in video poker, but it can spring some surprises on you.
I got a surprise of my own recently as I was practicing my strategy on Not So Ugly Deuces Wild. It's a game
I hadn't played in some time, but I was planning a day at a casino that offered it. With expert play, NSUD pays 99.7 percent with expert play. That figured to be the best game I'd find on that trip, so I figured I'd better put in a little practice time on the WinPoker software I use.
Here's the hand I was dealt: Queen of clubs, 9 of diamonds, 8 of diamonds, 4 of spades, 3 of hearts.
High pairs don't pay off in Deuces Wild --- the pay table starts at three of a kind --- so I wasn't going to hold the low Queen. Straights in Deuces Wild pay only 2-for-1, so you need four cards before you start thinking about possible straight draws. The best straight possibilities here were only two-card sequences.
Flushes pay 3-for-1 in NSUD, better than the 2-for-1 in full-pay Deuces Wild, so we do look for flushes often. Still, there were only two cards of the same suit in this hand.
Straight flushes pay 10-for-1, another step up from full-pay Deuces, which pays 9-for-1. But two cards to a straight flush? Not likely.
My conclusion: Toss the entire hand. Take a chance on five fresh cards.
The software's conclusion: A pop-up box, warning me I was making a mistake.
I changed my play to holding the 8-9 of diamonds, the only feasible play I could see here. At least it would give me starts on possible flushes, straights, and a long shot at a straight flush.
That, the computer accepted. It played out the draw, and then I clicked on the "analyze any hand" option to check out the numbers.
Sure enough, the calculations told me that holding the 8-9 of diamonds would bring an average return of 1.6075 coins per five wagered, while tossing the entire hand would bring only 1.6074 coins. I was wrong by one ten-thousandths of a percent.
Not a make-or-break hand obviously, and if you're playing in a casino and decide to toss the entire hand, well, I won't quibble. In order for holding the suited 8-9 to be the correct play, all the circumstances had to be in place.
To start with, the NSUD pay table had to be in place. In full-pay Deuces Wild, which pays less on flushes and straight flushes than the Not So Ugly variety, the best play is to discard all five cards. Even in Illinois Deuces, which matches NSUD in paying 3-for-1 on flushes but retains the full-pay return of 9-for-1 on straight flushes, the expert play is to toss the lot. The same hand in Illinois Deuces returns an average of 1.6012 coins with a five-coin discard, but only 1.5828 when holding the suited 8-9.
Beyond that, the situation regarding other possible straights and flushes had to be the same. Remember the hand: Queen of clubs, 8-9 of diamonds, 4 of spades, 3 of hearts
.
If holding the two consecutive diamonds with a straight flush possibility meant tossing a third diamond, the percentages would shift. If the 3 of hearts was a diamond instead, the best play would be to throw away the entire hand. Three diamonds with no straight flush possibility wouldn't yield enough to hold them, and throwing away a third diamond would diminish flush possibilities enough that holding the 8-9 would no longer be worthwhile.
Same deal with straight possibilities. The only possible straight involving three cards in the original hand is 8-9-Queen. There are two gaps on the inside, so the only combinations that can complete the straight are 10-Jack, 10-2, Jack-2 or two wild deuces.
What if the Queen of clubs was a Jack instead? Then there would be only one gap, and the combinations that would result in a straight would increase to 7-10, 10-Queen, 7-2, Queen-2, or 2-2. Throwing away the Jack would decrease the chances of building 8-9 into a straight that here too, the best play would change to discarding all five cards.
It seems by random chance in practicing with the WinPoker software, I ran into the right hand on the right pay table to learn a little something. If I'm playing with the Not So Ugly Deuces Wild pay table, and if I'm dealt a hand with 8-9 suited, no other cards of the same suit, and no straight possibilities with less than two gaps, I'll be holding the 8-9.
That's a rare situation, and who knows when I'll run into it again. But it's a play I'll never forget, and one I'd never have noticed had I not taken the time for a little practice.
I got a surprise of my own recently as I was practicing my strategy on Not So Ugly Deuces Wild. It's a game
I hadn't played in some time, but I was planning a day at a casino that offered it. With expert play, NSUD pays 99.7 percent with expert play. That figured to be the best game I'd find on that trip, so I figured I'd better put in a little practice time on the WinPoker software I use.
Here's the hand I was dealt: Queen of clubs, 9 of diamonds, 8 of diamonds, 4 of spades, 3 of hearts.
High pairs don't pay off in Deuces Wild --- the pay table starts at three of a kind --- so I wasn't going to hold the low Queen. Straights in Deuces Wild pay only 2-for-1, so you need four cards before you start thinking about possible straight draws. The best straight possibilities here were only two-card sequences.
Flushes pay 3-for-1 in NSUD, better than the 2-for-1 in full-pay Deuces Wild, so we do look for flushes often. Still, there were only two cards of the same suit in this hand.
Straight flushes pay 10-for-1, another step up from full-pay Deuces, which pays 9-for-1. But two cards to a straight flush? Not likely.
My conclusion: Toss the entire hand. Take a chance on five fresh cards.
The software's conclusion: A pop-up box, warning me I was making a mistake.
I changed my play to holding the 8-9 of diamonds, the only feasible play I could see here. At least it would give me starts on possible flushes, straights, and a long shot at a straight flush.
That, the computer accepted. It played out the draw, and then I clicked on the "analyze any hand" option to check out the numbers.
Sure enough, the calculations told me that holding the 8-9 of diamonds would bring an average return of 1.6075 coins per five wagered, while tossing the entire hand would bring only 1.6074 coins. I was wrong by one ten-thousandths of a percent.
Not a make-or-break hand obviously, and if you're playing in a casino and decide to toss the entire hand, well, I won't quibble. In order for holding the suited 8-9 to be the correct play, all the circumstances had to be in place.
To start with, the NSUD pay table had to be in place. In full-pay Deuces Wild, which pays less on flushes and straight flushes than the Not So Ugly variety, the best play is to discard all five cards. Even in Illinois Deuces, which matches NSUD in paying 3-for-1 on flushes but retains the full-pay return of 9-for-1 on straight flushes, the expert play is to toss the lot. The same hand in Illinois Deuces returns an average of 1.6012 coins with a five-coin discard, but only 1.5828 when holding the suited 8-9.
Beyond that, the situation regarding other possible straights and flushes had to be the same. Remember the hand: Queen of clubs, 8-9 of diamonds, 4 of spades, 3 of hearts
.
If holding the two consecutive diamonds with a straight flush possibility meant tossing a third diamond, the percentages would shift. If the 3 of hearts was a diamond instead, the best play would be to throw away the entire hand. Three diamonds with no straight flush possibility wouldn't yield enough to hold them, and throwing away a third diamond would diminish flush possibilities enough that holding the 8-9 would no longer be worthwhile.
Same deal with straight possibilities. The only possible straight involving three cards in the original hand is 8-9-Queen. There are two gaps on the inside, so the only combinations that can complete the straight are 10-Jack, 10-2, Jack-2 or two wild deuces.
What if the Queen of clubs was a Jack instead? Then there would be only one gap, and the combinations that would result in a straight would increase to 7-10, 10-Queen, 7-2, Queen-2, or 2-2. Throwing away the Jack would decrease the chances of building 8-9 into a straight that here too, the best play would change to discarding all five cards.
It seems by random chance in practicing with the WinPoker software, I ran into the right hand on the right pay table to learn a little something. If I'm playing with the Not So Ugly Deuces Wild pay table, and if I'm dealt a hand with 8-9 suited, no other cards of the same suit, and no straight possibilities with less than two gaps, I'll be holding the 8-9.
That's a rare situation, and who knows when I'll run into it again. But it's a play I'll never forget, and one I'd never have noticed had I not taken the time for a little practice.
Wednesday, August 21, 2013
New on my non-casino blog
A conversation with original Beatles fan club secretary Freda Kelly, www.jgoverflow@blogspot.com
Players relive the agony of defeat
Where there are gamblers, there are tales of big wins, and there are
woulda, coulda, shoulda stories of near misses. The conversation among a
group of players sitting around a casino buffet table brought more
than a few retellings of the thrills of victory and the agonies of
defeat:
Joan: "It was in Las Vegas, at one of those Fifty Play video poker machines. I've played a lot of the Triple Play and Five Play Poker, but I'd never played the Fifty Play, so I thought I'd give it a try. They had it for pennies, so it took $2.50 per hand.
"After about 10 or 11 hands, I was dealt Ace-King-Queen-Jack of clubs, along with a 7 of something. I figured that was great. Fifty chances at a royal flush. OK, a royal only brings you $40 on a penny machine, but even one would buy a few hands, and there's always the chance to draw two or three royals, or even more.
"I didn't even get one. A bunch of high pairs, a few flushes and a couple of straights. I didn't even get my money back. I did OK on the machine and got to play a while, but never did get my royal."
Tom: "Funny you should bring up Fifty Play. I actually was DEALT a royal on Fifty Play. Got it 50 times, and it was on a nickel machine, so it was worth $10,000. What suit? Hearts. Got my picture taken with it and everything. I don't think I've ever been dealt a royal in the first five cards before, so I was really lucky it came when I'd get it 50 times."
Wanda: "You guys and your poker. You know I only play the slots. I think my worst moment came on a nickel Jackpot Party machine. I put in $20, and my very first play the five green 7s lined up straight across the bottom. That's a pretty big pay, and I was really excited, but the machine didn't do anything. I looked at the credit meter, and it was down five cents. It said I'd only bet one coin, and that only gives you the center payline.
"The best I can figure is that I hit the repeat bet button, and the player before me had only been playing one coin on one line. That's a mistake I'll never make again. I felt just awful. Now whenever I play, I make sure I hit the button so that I'm playing all the paylines."
John: "We all make mistakes, but the one that stands out for me came at a blackjack table when I misread the dealer's hand. I had a 9 and a 7 for a hard 16, and the dealer had a 6 face up. I'd misread it as a 9, so I signaled for a hit. The dealer paused and looked at me, because I'd been playing straight basic strategy to that point. I signaled for a hit again and drew a 4. I had a 20, and another player grumbled something about luck over skill.
"When it came the dealer, she turned up another 6, and it finally hit me that her first card was a 6, and I'd made a bad play. So now she had 12. The next card was a 9. Of course. She had 21, and she beat me, along with everyone else. If I hadn't take the hit, she'd have gotten the 4 for a 16, then the 9 would have busted her and the whole table would have won.
"One guy was so mad he immediately left the table. Very embarrassing."
Frank: "Do you remember the old Multiple Action Blackjack game? You'd make three bets. You'd only play one hand, but the dealer would play out three hands, each one starting with the same face up card. I don't think I've seen it in years, but I played it quite a lot at the Four Queens in Vegas for a while.
"One time, I was dealt a blackjack. That feels great, because you figure you have three winners, right? You're already counting your money before the dealer plays. Well, the dealer had an Ace face up. He asked if I wanted insurance, and I refused. So he plays out the hand once, turns up a King for a blackjack. He moves the Ace for the next hand, King, blackjack. Moves the Ace for the third hand, 10, blackjack. Bye-bye winnings. Instead of three wins, I just had three pushes.
"Would you believe, two hands later, I was dealt another blackjack and the dealer had another Ace? Dealer's first hand, Jack, blackjack. Second hand, King, blackjack. I said to her, 'Please. Don't do this to me again.' Third hand, she drew a 6. Finally, I won one. They way things were going, I was happy to take it."
Jack: "I played that game once. Had a great session. My blackjacks all won, three times over. Next time I went to Las Vegas, I looked for it, but it was gone. Easy come, easy go."
Joan: "It was in Las Vegas, at one of those Fifty Play video poker machines. I've played a lot of the Triple Play and Five Play Poker, but I'd never played the Fifty Play, so I thought I'd give it a try. They had it for pennies, so it took $2.50 per hand.
"After about 10 or 11 hands, I was dealt Ace-King-Queen-Jack of clubs, along with a 7 of something. I figured that was great. Fifty chances at a royal flush. OK, a royal only brings you $40 on a penny machine, but even one would buy a few hands, and there's always the chance to draw two or three royals, or even more.
"I didn't even get one. A bunch of high pairs, a few flushes and a couple of straights. I didn't even get my money back. I did OK on the machine and got to play a while, but never did get my royal."
Tom: "Funny you should bring up Fifty Play. I actually was DEALT a royal on Fifty Play. Got it 50 times, and it was on a nickel machine, so it was worth $10,000. What suit? Hearts. Got my picture taken with it and everything. I don't think I've ever been dealt a royal in the first five cards before, so I was really lucky it came when I'd get it 50 times."
Wanda: "You guys and your poker. You know I only play the slots. I think my worst moment came on a nickel Jackpot Party machine. I put in $20, and my very first play the five green 7s lined up straight across the bottom. That's a pretty big pay, and I was really excited, but the machine didn't do anything. I looked at the credit meter, and it was down five cents. It said I'd only bet one coin, and that only gives you the center payline.
"The best I can figure is that I hit the repeat bet button, and the player before me had only been playing one coin on one line. That's a mistake I'll never make again. I felt just awful. Now whenever I play, I make sure I hit the button so that I'm playing all the paylines."
John: "We all make mistakes, but the one that stands out for me came at a blackjack table when I misread the dealer's hand. I had a 9 and a 7 for a hard 16, and the dealer had a 6 face up. I'd misread it as a 9, so I signaled for a hit. The dealer paused and looked at me, because I'd been playing straight basic strategy to that point. I signaled for a hit again and drew a 4. I had a 20, and another player grumbled something about luck over skill.
"When it came the dealer, she turned up another 6, and it finally hit me that her first card was a 6, and I'd made a bad play. So now she had 12. The next card was a 9. Of course. She had 21, and she beat me, along with everyone else. If I hadn't take the hit, she'd have gotten the 4 for a 16, then the 9 would have busted her and the whole table would have won.
"One guy was so mad he immediately left the table. Very embarrassing."
Frank: "Do you remember the old Multiple Action Blackjack game? You'd make three bets. You'd only play one hand, but the dealer would play out three hands, each one starting with the same face up card. I don't think I've seen it in years, but I played it quite a lot at the Four Queens in Vegas for a while.
"One time, I was dealt a blackjack. That feels great, because you figure you have three winners, right? You're already counting your money before the dealer plays. Well, the dealer had an Ace face up. He asked if I wanted insurance, and I refused. So he plays out the hand once, turns up a King for a blackjack. He moves the Ace for the next hand, King, blackjack. Moves the Ace for the third hand, 10, blackjack. Bye-bye winnings. Instead of three wins, I just had three pushes.
"Would you believe, two hands later, I was dealt another blackjack and the dealer had another Ace? Dealer's first hand, Jack, blackjack. Second hand, King, blackjack. I said to her, 'Please. Don't do this to me again.' Third hand, she drew a 6. Finally, I won one. They way things were going, I was happy to take it."
Jack: "I played that game once. Had a great session. My blackjacks all won, three times over. Next time I went to Las Vegas, I looked for it, but it was gone. Easy come, easy go."
Sunday, August 18, 2013
Chicago note: New high-limit slot room at Horseshoe Hammond
It’s been five years since Horseshoe Casino in Hammond,
Ind., opened its roomy, glitzy, amenity-laden new barge, the $500 million facility
that before opening was referred to internally as Project MOAB, for Mother of
All Boats.
The project didn’t stop with opening. Operating a successful
casino means constant freshening and upgrading. The latest upgrade at Horseshoe
is a new high-limit slot room, opened Aug. 8 on the casino’s fifth anniversary.
The highest-grossing casino in the Chicago area, Horseshoe has had strong play
among high-end players both on tables and slots right from the beginning. The new
high-limit room has been designed for player comfort, and has added some of the
most popular games in dollar-and-up denominations.
Among the games added:
** New $1
WMS video titles, including Colossal Reels, Zeus, Kronos and Queen of the Wild.
All have proven their popularity among high-limit players in Las
Vegas and Atlantic City.
** From IGT,
under its license with Action Gaming, comes All-Star Poker. It’s loaded with
IGT/Action’s most popular multi-hand video poker games, all for dollar-and-up
play. Touch the icons on the screen to choose among Ultimate X, Super Times
Pay, Double Super Times Pay, Spin Poker and others.
** New $1 5-reel,
9-line IGT stepper slots with classic title including Double Gold and Triple
Lucky 7’s.
Monday, August 12, 2013
Off-topic blog.
I just wanted to let everyone know I've started a separate page for non-casino material, a place where I can share some of the work I've done related to other passions --- baseball, music, science, science fiction. The first post, on The Fest for Beatles Fans, is up at http://jgoverflow.blogspot.com/
Hope at least some of you enjoy
Hope at least some of you enjoy
Tuesday, July 23, 2013
Living the 10-7 dream at Jumer's Rock Island
My son has been taking summer classes at Northern Illinois U., coming home weekends, and Marcy and I have been driving him back to DeKalb each Sunday night. The pattern established, Marcy said to me, "One of these weeks, we should just keep driving past DeKalb and pick somewhere for an overnight. A little change of scenery."
I suggested we drive another couple of hours to Rock Island and take a look at the Jumer's casino. The last time we did that, Jumer's was on its old boat, which tells you how long its been. The new, modern Jumer's casino barge with its comfortable, up-to-date hotel opened in December 2008. I don't usually let so long pass between trips to any of the casinos reasonably close to home.
I'm not going to go into all the details, just a couple of impressions from our overnight.
**The casino had plenty of penny video slots to keep Marcy happy. For me, the real attraction was single-hand, 25-cent 10-7-5 Double Bonus Poker. There is very little playable single-hand quarter video poker in the Chicago area, where I live, so these games are a treasure, even if they are three hours from home.
They're not quite the same game you'd find in Vegas. Full-pay 10-7-5 Double Bonus pays 100.17 percent with expert play, and that's illegal in Illinois. Gaming regulations prohibit any game with a theoretical return of more than 100 percent. Never mind that very few players master the difficult Double Bonus strategy and most get 3 to 4 percent less than the break-even point. The state doesn't want any games in the casinos that will reduce its tax take, and somehow doesn't trust the bottom-line-driven operators to put profitable games on the floor.
Jumer's had full-pay 10-7-5 Double Bonus on its old boat, approved at a time gaming board test programs weren't really up to snuff. By the time the new casino barge opened, the Illinois Gaming Board was no longer approving the game. But the game was an attraction, and Jumer's wanted it in its casino. So it installed a version used as a $5 game in other markets. It's the same as full-pay Double Bonus up and down the pay table, except on the hands that pay 250 coins for a five-coin bet. On Jumer's Double Bonus, if you draw a straight flush or four 5s on up through four Kings, your payback is 239 coins instead.
On $5 machines, that means the dollar amount of the payback is $1,195 instead of $1,250, leaving it $5 below the $1,200 threshold at which IRS paperwork is required before a jackpot can be paid. More important for Jumer's quarter machines, it brings the overall theoretical payback percentage down to 99.79 percent with expert play. It's still a great game, but within Illinois' peculiar limits.
**New at Jumer's is the Blue Square Cafe, which features dishes such as the portabello fries served at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, the Stadium bratwurst with special sauce served at Miller Park in Milwaukee and the Monsters of the Midway chili served at Soldier Field in Chicago.
The connection is that all are ballparks with concessions from Delaware North, Jumer's parent company. I didn't know the connection at first, and was a little taken aback as I looked around the displays that lined the walls. There were jerseys and other memorabilia for the Chicago White Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, Detroit Tigers, Green Bay Packers ... and no Chicago Cubs. Made this old Cub fan feel quite out of place.
I suggested we drive another couple of hours to Rock Island and take a look at the Jumer's casino. The last time we did that, Jumer's was on its old boat, which tells you how long its been. The new, modern Jumer's casino barge with its comfortable, up-to-date hotel opened in December 2008. I don't usually let so long pass between trips to any of the casinos reasonably close to home.
I'm not going to go into all the details, just a couple of impressions from our overnight.
**The casino had plenty of penny video slots to keep Marcy happy. For me, the real attraction was single-hand, 25-cent 10-7-5 Double Bonus Poker. There is very little playable single-hand quarter video poker in the Chicago area, where I live, so these games are a treasure, even if they are three hours from home.
They're not quite the same game you'd find in Vegas. Full-pay 10-7-5 Double Bonus pays 100.17 percent with expert play, and that's illegal in Illinois. Gaming regulations prohibit any game with a theoretical return of more than 100 percent. Never mind that very few players master the difficult Double Bonus strategy and most get 3 to 4 percent less than the break-even point. The state doesn't want any games in the casinos that will reduce its tax take, and somehow doesn't trust the bottom-line-driven operators to put profitable games on the floor.
Jumer's had full-pay 10-7-5 Double Bonus on its old boat, approved at a time gaming board test programs weren't really up to snuff. By the time the new casino barge opened, the Illinois Gaming Board was no longer approving the game. But the game was an attraction, and Jumer's wanted it in its casino. So it installed a version used as a $5 game in other markets. It's the same as full-pay Double Bonus up and down the pay table, except on the hands that pay 250 coins for a five-coin bet. On Jumer's Double Bonus, if you draw a straight flush or four 5s on up through four Kings, your payback is 239 coins instead.
On $5 machines, that means the dollar amount of the payback is $1,195 instead of $1,250, leaving it $5 below the $1,200 threshold at which IRS paperwork is required before a jackpot can be paid. More important for Jumer's quarter machines, it brings the overall theoretical payback percentage down to 99.79 percent with expert play. It's still a great game, but within Illinois' peculiar limits.
**New at Jumer's is the Blue Square Cafe, which features dishes such as the portabello fries served at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, the Stadium bratwurst with special sauce served at Miller Park in Milwaukee and the Monsters of the Midway chili served at Soldier Field in Chicago.
The connection is that all are ballparks with concessions from Delaware North, Jumer's parent company. I didn't know the connection at first, and was a little taken aback as I looked around the displays that lined the walls. There were jerseys and other memorabilia for the Chicago White Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, Detroit Tigers, Green Bay Packers ... and no Chicago Cubs. Made this old Cub fan feel quite out of place.
Wednesday, July 17, 2013
How does the house edge work?
The house edge remains a mysterious thing to casino players, including the one who asked me recently about roulette.
"Does a 5.26 percent house edge mean the house wins 52.6 percent of all spins?"
That wouldn't be a bad guess if every wager paid even money, and the house edge was made up entirely of the difference between the frequency of house wins and the frequency of player wins. In the red-black wager at roulette, where winners are paid even money, the house wins 52.63 percent of rolls, the player wins 47.37 percent. Subtract 47.37 from 52.63 and you get the 5.26 percent house edge.
It is the difference between win percentage and loss percentage that's important, and you can't just multiply the house edge by 10 and get the percentage of losing wagers. Roulette is a bit of a coincidence that way.
Take craps and the pass line wager, another even-money payoff. The house has a 1.41 percent edge.
Obviously, it wins more than 14.1 percent of the time. Instead, if you want to know the frequency of house wins, divide that 1.41 percent house edge in half, then add the result to 50 percent. The house wins 50.705 percent of wagers, the player wins 49.295 percent. Do the basic subtraction, and you get a difference of 1.41 percent --- the house edge.
Things get more complicated when payoffs get bigger. Let's go back to roulette and single-number bets. A double-zero roulette wheel has 38 numbers, with 1 through 36 as well as 0 and 00. Any time you bet on a single number, you have one way to win, and 37 ways to loses.
Yet the house edge is the same 5.26 percent as it is on red-black, odd-even or first 18-last 18. On those wagers with even-money payoffs, the house wins 52.63 percent of the time, as we have already seen.
Obviously, the house wins far more than 52.63 percent of single-number wagers. It wins 37 of 38, or 97.37 percent of wheel spins.
The reason you're bucking a house edge of 5.26 percent even though you lose 97.37 percent of the time comes in the payoff, of course. Winning single-number bets are paid at 35-1 odds. If it was a truly even bet, you'd be paid 37-1.
The difference between the payoff and the true odds is the key to the house edge. Here's the way it works.
Let's say you bet $10 on 17 on each spin of a perfect sequence in which each number turns up once. You risk a total of $380. On your one win, you get back $360 --- $350 in winnings for the 35-1 payoff, plus the return of your $10 wager on that spin.
That means the house has kept $20 of your $380 in wagers. Divide 20 by 380, and you get .0526. Multiply by that by 100 to get percent, and you see the house has kept 5.26 percent of the money you've wagered.
That's the house edge on single number bets.
It's simple enough to do the same for place bets or proposition wagers in craps, or the player bet in baccarat, or spaces on the Big Six wheel. The house edge is not based on the frequency of winning hands alone, nor is it based solely on the payoffs on winning wagers. Nor is a game with frequent winners necessarily one with a low house edge, nor a game with low payoffs per win a high house-edge proposition.
From a player's perspective, it's not how often you win, nor how much that counts, it's how much how often, working together.
"Does a 5.26 percent house edge mean the house wins 52.6 percent of all spins?"
That wouldn't be a bad guess if every wager paid even money, and the house edge was made up entirely of the difference between the frequency of house wins and the frequency of player wins. In the red-black wager at roulette, where winners are paid even money, the house wins 52.63 percent of rolls, the player wins 47.37 percent. Subtract 47.37 from 52.63 and you get the 5.26 percent house edge.
It is the difference between win percentage and loss percentage that's important, and you can't just multiply the house edge by 10 and get the percentage of losing wagers. Roulette is a bit of a coincidence that way.
Take craps and the pass line wager, another even-money payoff. The house has a 1.41 percent edge.
Obviously, it wins more than 14.1 percent of the time. Instead, if you want to know the frequency of house wins, divide that 1.41 percent house edge in half, then add the result to 50 percent. The house wins 50.705 percent of wagers, the player wins 49.295 percent. Do the basic subtraction, and you get a difference of 1.41 percent --- the house edge.
Things get more complicated when payoffs get bigger. Let's go back to roulette and single-number bets. A double-zero roulette wheel has 38 numbers, with 1 through 36 as well as 0 and 00. Any time you bet on a single number, you have one way to win, and 37 ways to loses.
Yet the house edge is the same 5.26 percent as it is on red-black, odd-even or first 18-last 18. On those wagers with even-money payoffs, the house wins 52.63 percent of the time, as we have already seen.
Obviously, the house wins far more than 52.63 percent of single-number wagers. It wins 37 of 38, or 97.37 percent of wheel spins.
The reason you're bucking a house edge of 5.26 percent even though you lose 97.37 percent of the time comes in the payoff, of course. Winning single-number bets are paid at 35-1 odds. If it was a truly even bet, you'd be paid 37-1.
The difference between the payoff and the true odds is the key to the house edge. Here's the way it works.
Let's say you bet $10 on 17 on each spin of a perfect sequence in which each number turns up once. You risk a total of $380. On your one win, you get back $360 --- $350 in winnings for the 35-1 payoff, plus the return of your $10 wager on that spin.
That means the house has kept $20 of your $380 in wagers. Divide 20 by 380, and you get .0526. Multiply by that by 100 to get percent, and you see the house has kept 5.26 percent of the money you've wagered.
That's the house edge on single number bets.
It's simple enough to do the same for place bets or proposition wagers in craps, or the player bet in baccarat, or spaces on the Big Six wheel. The house edge is not based on the frequency of winning hands alone, nor is it based solely on the payoffs on winning wagers. Nor is a game with frequent winners necessarily one with a low house edge, nor a game with low payoffs per win a high house-edge proposition.
From a player's perspective, it's not how often you win, nor how much that counts, it's how much how often, working together.
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Practice time brings a video poker strategy surprise
Practice may not make perfect in video poker, but it can spring some surprises on you.
I got a surprise of my own recently as I was practicing my strategy on Not So Ugly Deuces Wild. It's a game I hadn't played in some time, but I was planning a day at a casino that offered it. With expert play, NSUD pays 99.7 percent with expert play. That figured to be the best game I'd find on that trip, so I figured I'd better put in a little practice time on the WinPoker software I use.
Here's the hand I was dealt: Queen of clubs, 9 of diamonds, 8 of diamonds, 4 of spades, 3 of hearts.
High pairs don't pay off in Deuces Wild --- the pay table starts at three of a kind --- so I wasn't going to hold the low Queen. Straights in Deuces Wild pay only 2-for-1, so you need four cards before you start thinking about possible straight draws. The best straight possibilities here were only two-card sequences. Flushes pay 3-for-1 in NSUD, better than the 2-for-1 in full-pay Deuces Wild, so we do look for flushes often. Still, there were only two cards of the same suit in this hand.
Straight flushes pay 10-for-1, another step up from full-pay Deuces, which pays 9-for-1. But two cards to a straight flush? Not likely.
My conclusion: Toss the entire hand. Take a chance on five fresh cards.
The software's conclusion: A pop-up box, warning me I was making a mistake.
I changed my play to holding the 8-9 of diamonds, the only feasible play I could see here. At least it would give me starts on possible flushes, straights, and a long shot at a straight flush.
That, the computer accepted. It played out the draw, and then I clicked on the "analyze any hand" option to check out the numbers.
Sure enough, the calculations told me that holding the 8-9 of diamonds would bring an average return of 1.6075 coins per five wagered, while tossing the entire hand would bring only 1.6074 coins. I was wrong by one ten-thousandths of a percent.
Not a make-or-break hand obviously, and if you're playing in a casino and decide to toss the entire hand, well, I won't quibble. In order for holding the suited 8-9 to be the correct play, all the circumstances had to be in place.
To start with, the NSUD pay table had to be in place. In full-pay Deuces Wild, which pays less on flushes and straight flushes than the Not So Ugly variety, the best play is to discard all five cards. Even in Illinois Deuces, which matches NSUD in paying 3-for-1 on flushes but retains the full-pay return of 9-for-1 on straight flushes, the expert play is to toss the lot. The same hand in Illinois Deuces returns an average of 1.6012 coins with a five-coin discard, but only 1.5828 when holding the suited 8-9.
Beyond that, the situation regarding other possible straights and flushes had to be the same. Remember the hand: Queen of clubs, 8-9 of diamonds, 4 of spades, 3 of hearts.
If holding the two consecutive diamonds with a straight flush possibility meant tossing a third diamond, the percentages would shift. If the 3 of hearts was a diamond instead, the best play would be to throw away the entire hand. Three diamonds with no straight flush possibility wouldn't yield enough to hold them, and throwing away a third diamond would diminish flush possibilities enough that holding the 8-9 would no longer be worthwhile.
Same deal with straight possibilities. The only possible straight involving three cards in the original hand is 8-9-Queen. There are two gaps on the inside, so the only combinations that can complete the straight are 10-Jack, 10-2, Jack-2 or two wild deuces.
What if the Queen of clubs was a Jack instead? Then there would be only one gap, and the combinations that would result in a straight would increase to 7-10, 10-Queen, 7-2, Queen-2, or 2-2. Throwing away the Jack would decrease the chances of building 8-9 into a straight that here too, the best play would change to discarding all five cards.
It seems by random chance in practicing with the WinPoker software, I ran into the right hand on the right pay table to learn a little something. If I'm playing with the Not So Ugly Deuces Wild pay table, and if I'm dealt a hand with 8-9 suited, no other cards of the same suit, and no straight possibilities with less than two gaps, I'll be holding the 8-9.
That's a rare situation, and who knows when I'll run into it again. But it's a play I'll never forget, and one I'd never have noticed had I not taken the time for a little practice.
I got a surprise of my own recently as I was practicing my strategy on Not So Ugly Deuces Wild. It's a game I hadn't played in some time, but I was planning a day at a casino that offered it. With expert play, NSUD pays 99.7 percent with expert play. That figured to be the best game I'd find on that trip, so I figured I'd better put in a little practice time on the WinPoker software I use.
Here's the hand I was dealt: Queen of clubs, 9 of diamonds, 8 of diamonds, 4 of spades, 3 of hearts.
High pairs don't pay off in Deuces Wild --- the pay table starts at three of a kind --- so I wasn't going to hold the low Queen. Straights in Deuces Wild pay only 2-for-1, so you need four cards before you start thinking about possible straight draws. The best straight possibilities here were only two-card sequences. Flushes pay 3-for-1 in NSUD, better than the 2-for-1 in full-pay Deuces Wild, so we do look for flushes often. Still, there were only two cards of the same suit in this hand.
Straight flushes pay 10-for-1, another step up from full-pay Deuces, which pays 9-for-1. But two cards to a straight flush? Not likely.
My conclusion: Toss the entire hand. Take a chance on five fresh cards.
The software's conclusion: A pop-up box, warning me I was making a mistake.
I changed my play to holding the 8-9 of diamonds, the only feasible play I could see here. At least it would give me starts on possible flushes, straights, and a long shot at a straight flush.
That, the computer accepted. It played out the draw, and then I clicked on the "analyze any hand" option to check out the numbers.
Sure enough, the calculations told me that holding the 8-9 of diamonds would bring an average return of 1.6075 coins per five wagered, while tossing the entire hand would bring only 1.6074 coins. I was wrong by one ten-thousandths of a percent.
Not a make-or-break hand obviously, and if you're playing in a casino and decide to toss the entire hand, well, I won't quibble. In order for holding the suited 8-9 to be the correct play, all the circumstances had to be in place.
To start with, the NSUD pay table had to be in place. In full-pay Deuces Wild, which pays less on flushes and straight flushes than the Not So Ugly variety, the best play is to discard all five cards. Even in Illinois Deuces, which matches NSUD in paying 3-for-1 on flushes but retains the full-pay return of 9-for-1 on straight flushes, the expert play is to toss the lot. The same hand in Illinois Deuces returns an average of 1.6012 coins with a five-coin discard, but only 1.5828 when holding the suited 8-9.
Beyond that, the situation regarding other possible straights and flushes had to be the same. Remember the hand: Queen of clubs, 8-9 of diamonds, 4 of spades, 3 of hearts.
If holding the two consecutive diamonds with a straight flush possibility meant tossing a third diamond, the percentages would shift. If the 3 of hearts was a diamond instead, the best play would be to throw away the entire hand. Three diamonds with no straight flush possibility wouldn't yield enough to hold them, and throwing away a third diamond would diminish flush possibilities enough that holding the 8-9 would no longer be worthwhile.
Same deal with straight possibilities. The only possible straight involving three cards in the original hand is 8-9-Queen. There are two gaps on the inside, so the only combinations that can complete the straight are 10-Jack, 10-2, Jack-2 or two wild deuces.
What if the Queen of clubs was a Jack instead? Then there would be only one gap, and the combinations that would result in a straight would increase to 7-10, 10-Queen, 7-2, Queen-2, or 2-2. Throwing away the Jack would decrease the chances of building 8-9 into a straight that here too, the best play would change to discarding all five cards.
It seems by random chance in practicing with the WinPoker software, I ran into the right hand on the right pay table to learn a little something. If I'm playing with the Not So Ugly Deuces Wild pay table, and if I'm dealt a hand with 8-9 suited, no other cards of the same suit, and no straight possibilities with less than two gaps, I'll be holding the 8-9.
That's a rare situation, and who knows when I'll run into it again. But it's a play I'll never forget, and one I'd never have noticed had I not taken the time for a little practice.
Friday, July 5, 2013
Odd streaks, past results and future outcomes
For about a lifetime now, I've been telling gamblers that in most
games, past results have no effect on future outcomes. (Blackjack is an
exception, since each card dealt out changes the composition of the
remaining deck, altering the odds of the game.)
The roulette ball has landed on eight black numbers in a row? The chances of the next one being black are still 18 in 38. The craps shooter has gone a dozen rolls without a 7? Unless you're dealing with a controlled roller, the chances of the next roll being a 7 are 1 in 6, same as always. You've just hit a big slot jackpot? The odds against the big jackpot combination turning up on the next spin are the same as the spin before.
From time to time, I'm asked how that possibly can be. If in the long run, 18 of every 38 spins of the roulette wheel will be red, and there have been eight black numbers in a row, shouldn't you be betting on red? If there have been a dozen craps rolls without a 7, isn't 7 "due"? After all, in the long run, one of every six rolls will be a 7.
The answer is that there doesn't have to be any makeup time. In any game, there will be unusual streaks that seem to defy the odds. Casinos and their customers count on that. Without such streaks, there would be no winners --- we'd all just be handing over our money at a prescribed percentage.
Eventually, such streaks just fade into statistical insignificance, overwhelmed by the sheer number of trials that go on in casinos.
For a simple example of how all this works, I like to use another chance event: flipping a coin. Just as in rolling the dice, spinning the roulette wheel or pulling the slot handle, past coin flips have no affect on future outcomes. There's a 50-50 chance of heads or tails on every flip, regardless of what has gone on before.
This came up recently on an Internet message board in which I participate in the odd discussion --- the odder, the better. The manager of a softball team said a coin flip determined who was the home team, and that he'd lost 13 consecutive flips. What were the odds?
On a 50-50 event like flipping a coin, calculating the odds is easy. Your chances of losing a single flip are 1 in 2. Your chances of losing 13 in a row are 1 in 2 to the 13th power --- start with 2, then multiply by 2 12 times. The answer is 1 in 8,192. In 8,192 sets of 13 coin flips, on the average you'll lose all 13 of them once.
Another poster on this message board suggested you could improve your odds with some judicious selections. "If it hits seven heads in a row, isn't it more likely to come up tails the next time, because of the law of averages?"
No, the odds never change. If heads come up seven times in a row, the odds on the next flip are still even. There never has to be a makeup period --- in the long run, any unusual streaks just fade into statistical insignificance.
"But in the long run, things even out," the poster said. "That leads me to believe that, since you know things will even out, you're more likely to hit the other side if there's been a run on one side."
Recognize that train of thought? That's the same thing as a roulette player who thinks that after eight black numbers, red is due, or a craps player who thinks that after a dozen rolls without a 7, the shooter must be due to roll a 7.
But any evening out to be done is purely statistical, whether we're talking roulette, craps, slots or coin flips.
Let's say the coin flipper starts with 7 heads in a row. At that point, 100 percent of flips have been heads. The expectation is that 50 percent should be heads, so it appears there's evening up to do.
Now let's say future flips come up exactly 50 percent heads and 50 percent tails. (Things rarely come out quite so neatly, of course.) After another 100 flips, 57 have been heads, and 50 tails. Now only 53.3 percent of the flips have been heads, only 3.3 percent above expected average. On thousand flips after the first seven, we have 507 heads and 500 tails. 50.3 percent have been heads. One million flips after the first 7, 500,007, or 50.000035 percent, have been heads.
There has been no "making up," period, but we're right on 50 percent heads and 50 percent tails. The original streak of seven heads has just faded against the statistical background.
Streaks happen, and if you're on the winning side, streaks are meant to savor. But there doesn't have to be any equal but opposite streak to make the odds come out right. Given enough trials, normal results from the streak onward are enough to keep the games on track.
The roulette ball has landed on eight black numbers in a row? The chances of the next one being black are still 18 in 38. The craps shooter has gone a dozen rolls without a 7? Unless you're dealing with a controlled roller, the chances of the next roll being a 7 are 1 in 6, same as always. You've just hit a big slot jackpot? The odds against the big jackpot combination turning up on the next spin are the same as the spin before.
From time to time, I'm asked how that possibly can be. If in the long run, 18 of every 38 spins of the roulette wheel will be red, and there have been eight black numbers in a row, shouldn't you be betting on red? If there have been a dozen craps rolls without a 7, isn't 7 "due"? After all, in the long run, one of every six rolls will be a 7.
The answer is that there doesn't have to be any makeup time. In any game, there will be unusual streaks that seem to defy the odds. Casinos and their customers count on that. Without such streaks, there would be no winners --- we'd all just be handing over our money at a prescribed percentage.
Eventually, such streaks just fade into statistical insignificance, overwhelmed by the sheer number of trials that go on in casinos.
For a simple example of how all this works, I like to use another chance event: flipping a coin. Just as in rolling the dice, spinning the roulette wheel or pulling the slot handle, past coin flips have no affect on future outcomes. There's a 50-50 chance of heads or tails on every flip, regardless of what has gone on before.
This came up recently on an Internet message board in which I participate in the odd discussion --- the odder, the better. The manager of a softball team said a coin flip determined who was the home team, and that he'd lost 13 consecutive flips. What were the odds?
On a 50-50 event like flipping a coin, calculating the odds is easy. Your chances of losing a single flip are 1 in 2. Your chances of losing 13 in a row are 1 in 2 to the 13th power --- start with 2, then multiply by 2 12 times. The answer is 1 in 8,192. In 8,192 sets of 13 coin flips, on the average you'll lose all 13 of them once.
Another poster on this message board suggested you could improve your odds with some judicious selections. "If it hits seven heads in a row, isn't it more likely to come up tails the next time, because of the law of averages?"
No, the odds never change. If heads come up seven times in a row, the odds on the next flip are still even. There never has to be a makeup period --- in the long run, any unusual streaks just fade into statistical insignificance.
"But in the long run, things even out," the poster said. "That leads me to believe that, since you know things will even out, you're more likely to hit the other side if there's been a run on one side."
Recognize that train of thought? That's the same thing as a roulette player who thinks that after eight black numbers, red is due, or a craps player who thinks that after a dozen rolls without a 7, the shooter must be due to roll a 7.
But any evening out to be done is purely statistical, whether we're talking roulette, craps, slots or coin flips.
Let's say the coin flipper starts with 7 heads in a row. At that point, 100 percent of flips have been heads. The expectation is that 50 percent should be heads, so it appears there's evening up to do.
Now let's say future flips come up exactly 50 percent heads and 50 percent tails. (Things rarely come out quite so neatly, of course.) After another 100 flips, 57 have been heads, and 50 tails. Now only 53.3 percent of the flips have been heads, only 3.3 percent above expected average. On thousand flips after the first seven, we have 507 heads and 500 tails. 50.3 percent have been heads. One million flips after the first 7, 500,007, or 50.000035 percent, have been heads.
There has been no "making up," period, but we're right on 50 percent heads and 50 percent tails. The original streak of seven heads has just faded against the statistical background.
Streaks happen, and if you're on the winning side, streaks are meant to savor. But there doesn't have to be any equal but opposite streak to make the odds come out right. Given enough trials, normal results from the streak onward are enough to keep the games on track.
Wednesday, July 3, 2013
Why video poker pros always bet max coin
Video poker games that pay in excess of 100 percent with expert play
are practically non-existent in the Midwest, and even in Nevada they're
getting scarcer all the time. A fellow named Jack games such as full-pay
Deuces Wild and 10-7-5 Double Bonus Poker on his mind when he phone me
recently.
"There are video poker pros in Nevada, right?"
Yes, I told him, although there are fewer opportunities for video poker advantage play than there used to be. And most video poker "pros" have other jobs or businesses. You have to be well-bankrolled and able to withstand the inevitable losing streaks to really press home the small edge you can get at some video poker games.
"It's that bankroll part I wanted to ask about. When a pro finds himself without enough money to bet five coins at a time, does he switch to one-coin play?"
No, I told him.
"Never? I mean, surely, it doesn't make any more sense for a pro to overbet their bankroll than it does for an average player."
Never. A short-bankrolled pro --- if he or she is smart --- is a pro who doesn't play until the bankroll is sufficiently padded.
"But surely a little one-coin play can help the pro through the tough times. Can't that help build the bankroll little by little so the pro has enough to bet it all again?"
It's more likely that one-coin play would erode the bankroll little by little until the pro hand nothing left.
"But these guys are experts, and the edge is the edge, right? They know all the expert strategy you like to write about."
Expert strategy is more than knowing which cards to hold and which cards to fold. It's also not overbetting your bankroll, and knowing that you can't get an edge on a video poker game unless you bet maximum coins. That's because of the huge jump in the royal flush payoff with five coins wagered. On most machines, a royal pays 250 coins for a one-coin wager, 500 for two, 750 for three or 1,000 for four. But on the fifth coin, the royal jumps to 4,000 coins --- essentially, you're getting 3,000 coins for the royal on that final coin wagered, but only getting 250 per coin on the first four coins.
"Royals are rare. Does that make that much difference, that a pro wouldn't even play for the smaller payoff?"
It makes all the difference in the world. Take 10-7-5 Double Bonus Poker, where full houses pay 10-for-1, flushes 7-for-1 and straights 5-for-1. With expert play, that's a 100.17 percent game. The pro squeezes out a small profit on the game, and cash back and comps are gravy. But when the royal is worth only 250 coins per coin wagered, the payback with expert play drops to 99.11 percent. It's not a beatable game.
Or take full-pay Deuces Wild. That yields a 100.76 return with expert play. But with four or fewer coins wagered, that return drops to 99.75 percent, under that magic 100 percent mark.
Betting fewer than five coins turns even the best video poker games into games that will pad the house's bankroll, not yours.
"So to get the edge, you have to bet five coins?"
Right. In video poker, the house makes ALL its money on coins Nos. 1 through 4. On the fifth coin, the player has an edge. That goes even for lower-paying games. On 8-5 Jacks or Better, the payoff on coins
Nos. 1-4 is only 96.06 percent. But on the fifth coin alone, we get back 102.26 percent, raising the overall return on the machine to 97.3 percent.
"I wish I could bet just the fifth coin."
So do I. If we got that payoff on every coin, we'd all be pros --- until the games disappeared.
"There are video poker pros in Nevada, right?"
Yes, I told him, although there are fewer opportunities for video poker advantage play than there used to be. And most video poker "pros" have other jobs or businesses. You have to be well-bankrolled and able to withstand the inevitable losing streaks to really press home the small edge you can get at some video poker games.
"It's that bankroll part I wanted to ask about. When a pro finds himself without enough money to bet five coins at a time, does he switch to one-coin play?"
No, I told him.
"Never? I mean, surely, it doesn't make any more sense for a pro to overbet their bankroll than it does for an average player."
Never. A short-bankrolled pro --- if he or she is smart --- is a pro who doesn't play until the bankroll is sufficiently padded.
"But surely a little one-coin play can help the pro through the tough times. Can't that help build the bankroll little by little so the pro has enough to bet it all again?"
It's more likely that one-coin play would erode the bankroll little by little until the pro hand nothing left.
"But these guys are experts, and the edge is the edge, right? They know all the expert strategy you like to write about."
Expert strategy is more than knowing which cards to hold and which cards to fold. It's also not overbetting your bankroll, and knowing that you can't get an edge on a video poker game unless you bet maximum coins. That's because of the huge jump in the royal flush payoff with five coins wagered. On most machines, a royal pays 250 coins for a one-coin wager, 500 for two, 750 for three or 1,000 for four. But on the fifth coin, the royal jumps to 4,000 coins --- essentially, you're getting 3,000 coins for the royal on that final coin wagered, but only getting 250 per coin on the first four coins.
"Royals are rare. Does that make that much difference, that a pro wouldn't even play for the smaller payoff?"
It makes all the difference in the world. Take 10-7-5 Double Bonus Poker, where full houses pay 10-for-1, flushes 7-for-1 and straights 5-for-1. With expert play, that's a 100.17 percent game. The pro squeezes out a small profit on the game, and cash back and comps are gravy. But when the royal is worth only 250 coins per coin wagered, the payback with expert play drops to 99.11 percent. It's not a beatable game.
Or take full-pay Deuces Wild. That yields a 100.76 return with expert play. But with four or fewer coins wagered, that return drops to 99.75 percent, under that magic 100 percent mark.
Betting fewer than five coins turns even the best video poker games into games that will pad the house's bankroll, not yours.
"So to get the edge, you have to bet five coins?"
Right. In video poker, the house makes ALL its money on coins Nos. 1 through 4. On the fifth coin, the player has an edge. That goes even for lower-paying games. On 8-5 Jacks or Better, the payoff on coins
Nos. 1-4 is only 96.06 percent. But on the fifth coin alone, we get back 102.26 percent, raising the overall return on the machine to 97.3 percent.
"I wish I could bet just the fifth coin."
So do I. If we got that payoff on every coin, we'd all be pros --- until the games disappeared.
Tuesday, June 25, 2013
The basics of splitting 9s in blackjack
If you're a blackjack player, and have never looked at a basic strategy table, you should.
It's a tidy little grid, with possible player hands down the side, and possible dealer face-up cards across the top. Find the rectangle directly across from your hand, and directly down from the dealer's, and the basic strategy table tells you whether to hit, stand, split, double down or even surrender, if the house permits such a thing.
Mostly the plays fit into neat little groupings, as you can see if you check out charts such as those on Michael Shackleford's Wizard of Odds site, at http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack. Large blocks of hands have the same correct play. If you start with a pair of 7s, the block of rectangles showing dealer up cards of 2 through 7 tell you to split the pair, while the block showing dealer's 8 or above tell you just to hit. Sometimes the block of like plays comes in the middle of the line. With Ace-4 or Ace-5, the grid tells you to double down in that block showing dealer's 4, 5 or 6, but just to hit against anything else.
Basic strategy is orderly and logical. The charts don't tell you to make one play against one dealer up card, the opposite play against the next higher card, then go back to the original play against the next cart.
Except....
Yes, there is an exception to all that orderliness. When you have a pair of 9s, the blocks aren't quite so neat. Sure, there's a big block that tells you to split the pair. Whenever you have a 2 through 6, the chart tells you to split. But when you have a 7, it tells you to stand. Then it says to go back to splitting if the dealer has an 8 or 9, and back to standing against a dealer's 10-value or Ace.
Those back-and-forth-and-back shifts are unique on the basic strategy table, and worth thinking about.
The hands to focus on are those three rectangles that tell us just to stand on our pair of 9s. We stand when the dealer has a 7, and we stand when the dealer has a 10-value or an Ace. What the basic strategy chart is telling us is that in blackjack, sometimes we play offense, and sometimes we play defense. Sometimes our object is to maximize winnings, and sometimes our object is to minimize losses.
If you start with a pair of 9s and the dealer has a 7, you have an edge. Your 18 will win whenever the dealer has a 10-value --- 10, Jack, King or Queen --- face down, and it will push whenever the dealer has an Ace face down. Four of the 13 denominations in the deck turn your 18 into an instant winner, and there are no cards that turn the dealer's 7 into an instant winner against you. If the dealer is going to win the hand, he or she is going to have to draw. Standing pat is your best offense in that situation. You have the edge, so keep it.
But if the dealer has a 10-value or an Ace, you have no such edge. Your 18 will lose more often than it wins. Splitting the pair and starting each hand with a 9 doesn't help. It just leaves you with two hands that lose more often than they win. And splitting the pair means making a second wager, so you have more at risk.
Time to play defense. We stand on the 9s when the dealer shows a 10-value or Ace because we don't want to make a second bet and increase our risk.
So we play that little game of back-and-forth-and-back on the basic strategy chart. Dealt a pair of 9s, we play offense and maximize our potential winnings by standing when the dealer shows a 7, and we play defense, minimizing losses, when the dealer has a 10-value or Ace.
All very neat, don't you think?
The reason is that in single-deck blackjack, each card dealt out has a greater effect on the composition of the remaining deck. If you have a 6 and a 5 for a two-card 11, and the dealer has an Ace, then 16 of the other 49 cards in a single deck --- 32.7 percent --- are 10-values that will give you 21. In a common six-deck game, it'd be 96 of 309 cards, or 31.1 percent.
You have a better chance of winding up with a strong hand when you double down in a single-deck game. That's why you double on 11 against an Ace when one deck is being used, but not in multiple-deck games.
It's a tidy little grid, with possible player hands down the side, and possible dealer face-up cards across the top. Find the rectangle directly across from your hand, and directly down from the dealer's, and the basic strategy table tells you whether to hit, stand, split, double down or even surrender, if the house permits such a thing.
Mostly the plays fit into neat little groupings, as you can see if you check out charts such as those on Michael Shackleford's Wizard of Odds site, at http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack. Large blocks of hands have the same correct play. If you start with a pair of 7s, the block of rectangles showing dealer up cards of 2 through 7 tell you to split the pair, while the block showing dealer's 8 or above tell you just to hit. Sometimes the block of like plays comes in the middle of the line. With Ace-4 or Ace-5, the grid tells you to double down in that block showing dealer's 4, 5 or 6, but just to hit against anything else.
Basic strategy is orderly and logical. The charts don't tell you to make one play against one dealer up card, the opposite play against the next higher card, then go back to the original play against the next cart.
Except....
Yes, there is an exception to all that orderliness. When you have a pair of 9s, the blocks aren't quite so neat. Sure, there's a big block that tells you to split the pair. Whenever you have a 2 through 6, the chart tells you to split. But when you have a 7, it tells you to stand. Then it says to go back to splitting if the dealer has an 8 or 9, and back to standing against a dealer's 10-value or Ace.
Those back-and-forth-and-back shifts are unique on the basic strategy table, and worth thinking about.
The hands to focus on are those three rectangles that tell us just to stand on our pair of 9s. We stand when the dealer has a 7, and we stand when the dealer has a 10-value or an Ace. What the basic strategy chart is telling us is that in blackjack, sometimes we play offense, and sometimes we play defense. Sometimes our object is to maximize winnings, and sometimes our object is to minimize losses.
If you start with a pair of 9s and the dealer has a 7, you have an edge. Your 18 will win whenever the dealer has a 10-value --- 10, Jack, King or Queen --- face down, and it will push whenever the dealer has an Ace face down. Four of the 13 denominations in the deck turn your 18 into an instant winner, and there are no cards that turn the dealer's 7 into an instant winner against you. If the dealer is going to win the hand, he or she is going to have to draw. Standing pat is your best offense in that situation. You have the edge, so keep it.
But if the dealer has a 10-value or an Ace, you have no such edge. Your 18 will lose more often than it wins. Splitting the pair and starting each hand with a 9 doesn't help. It just leaves you with two hands that lose more often than they win. And splitting the pair means making a second wager, so you have more at risk.
Time to play defense. We stand on the 9s when the dealer shows a 10-value or Ace because we don't want to make a second bet and increase our risk.
So we play that little game of back-and-forth-and-back on the basic strategy chart. Dealt a pair of 9s, we play offense and maximize our potential winnings by standing when the dealer shows a 7, and we play defense, minimizing losses, when the dealer has a 10-value or Ace.
All very neat, don't you think?
** ** **
Speaking of blackjack basic strategy, a caller recently asked why
basic strategy charts say you should double down on 11 against all
dealer face up cards in single-deck games, but not against Aces in
multiple-deck games.The reason is that in single-deck blackjack, each card dealt out has a greater effect on the composition of the remaining deck. If you have a 6 and a 5 for a two-card 11, and the dealer has an Ace, then 16 of the other 49 cards in a single deck --- 32.7 percent --- are 10-values that will give you 21. In a common six-deck game, it'd be 96 of 309 cards, or 31.1 percent.
You have a better chance of winding up with a strong hand when you double down in a single-deck game. That's why you double on 11 against an Ace when one deck is being used, but not in multiple-deck games.
Friday, June 21, 2013
Readers ask about other blackjack players, and loosening the slots
Question. What percentage of blackjack players do
you think are counting cards? Half? I just wonder, when I see players
splitting 6s against a 10. They can't be counting cards.
Answer. I doubt that half of blackjack players in casinos have studied a basic strategy chart, let alone count cards. I'd put the number of card counters at less than 1 percent of the blackjack-playing population.
Before any player who is trying to get better worries about counting cards, he or she must master basic strategy first. An average blackjack player faces a house edge of about 2 to 2.5 percent. Learning basic strategy can cut that house edge to around a half percent or less, depending on house rules.
How can you tell if someone at your table is a basic strategy player? Here are a few common moves that separate those who know their basic from those who don't:
Card counters will sometimes make plays that run counter to basic strategy. In addition to hitting 12 against a 2 or 3, a counter will sometimes also hit 12 against 4, if the composition of the remaining cards is right. A card counter also will sometimes hit 16 against 10, but not 16 vs. 7.
Insurance is a special case. Intuition players often will insure their blackjacks by taking even money when the dealer has an Ace face up. Basic strategy players will never take insurance --- that's the right play most of the time. Card counters, on the other hand, will take insurance if the remaining deck includes a high enough percentage of high cards.
Look around next time you play. See how many players hem, haw and sometimes stand on 16 vs. 7, or fail to split 8s against a 10, or stand on Ace-7 against a 9. That'll tell you just how few basic strategy players there are --- and there are many, many few card counters.
Question. I would like to know if adding say $1,000 to a slot machine loosens that machine for a big payout.
Also, I always play the max. Does it matter what the denomination of the game is? That is, do the games loosen as the denomination rises? Does a $1 game pay more than a penny slot played at maximum?
Answer. No amount of play changes the odds of hitting a winning combination on slot machines. If the game is programmed so that there is a 1 in 10,000 chance of hitting the big jackpot, then there is a 1 in 10,000 chance on every spin. If you've just hit the jackpot, the odds are still in 1 in 10,000; if you've played 9,999 spins without hitting the big jackpot, the odds are STILL 1 in 10,000.
(The 1 in 10,000 is just an example, by the way. Some machines hit more frequently, some much less. There are machines with a 1 in 2,000 chance of hitting the top jackpot, while in a big-money game like Megabucks the chances are 1 in tens of millions.)
If it's a progressive machine, adding money to the top jackpot does not change the odds of your hitting that jackpot. If the progressive meter starts at $1,000, and the jackpot meter has grown to $2,000, the chances of winning are the same as when you started. The long-term payback percentage does grow with the progressive meter, because the big hit pays more when it finally comes.
As for changing coin denomination, that DOES make a difference. Generally, penny machines pay less than nickel machines, which pay less than quarters, which pay less than dollars and so on. If you play maximum coins on a penny machine, your bet may be as large as if you're playing a three-reel dollar slot, but in most cases the dollar game will have a higher payback percentage.
Of course, there's also a difference in the play experience between a penny video slot and a dollar reel-spinner. Winning spins are more frequent on the video game, but payoffs of many times your wager are more common on the reel-spinner. The penny game will keep you in your seat longer, but the dollar game gives you a better chance of walking away with a fairly substantial win. That's the choice slot players face when deciding between low-denomination video games and higher denomination reel spinners.
Answer. I doubt that half of blackjack players in casinos have studied a basic strategy chart, let alone count cards. I'd put the number of card counters at less than 1 percent of the blackjack-playing population.
Before any player who is trying to get better worries about counting cards, he or she must master basic strategy first. An average blackjack player faces a house edge of about 2 to 2.5 percent. Learning basic strategy can cut that house edge to around a half percent or less, depending on house rules.
How can you tell if someone at your table is a basic strategy player? Here are a few common moves that separate those who know their basic from those who don't:
- A basic strategy player hits hard 16 when the dealer shows a 7. Every time.
- A basic strategy player splits Aces, and splits 8s, even when the dealer has a 10 face up.
- A basic strategy player never stands on soft 17. He or she hits or doubles down, depending on the dealer's face up card.
- A basic strategy player hits on 12 if the dealer shows a 2 or a 3.
- A basic strategy player hits on soft 18 if the dealer shows a 9, 10 or Ace.
Card counters will sometimes make plays that run counter to basic strategy. In addition to hitting 12 against a 2 or 3, a counter will sometimes also hit 12 against 4, if the composition of the remaining cards is right. A card counter also will sometimes hit 16 against 10, but not 16 vs. 7.
Insurance is a special case. Intuition players often will insure their blackjacks by taking even money when the dealer has an Ace face up. Basic strategy players will never take insurance --- that's the right play most of the time. Card counters, on the other hand, will take insurance if the remaining deck includes a high enough percentage of high cards.
Look around next time you play. See how many players hem, haw and sometimes stand on 16 vs. 7, or fail to split 8s against a 10, or stand on Ace-7 against a 9. That'll tell you just how few basic strategy players there are --- and there are many, many few card counters.
Question. I would like to know if adding say $1,000 to a slot machine loosens that machine for a big payout.
Also, I always play the max. Does it matter what the denomination of the game is? That is, do the games loosen as the denomination rises? Does a $1 game pay more than a penny slot played at maximum?
Answer. No amount of play changes the odds of hitting a winning combination on slot machines. If the game is programmed so that there is a 1 in 10,000 chance of hitting the big jackpot, then there is a 1 in 10,000 chance on every spin. If you've just hit the jackpot, the odds are still in 1 in 10,000; if you've played 9,999 spins without hitting the big jackpot, the odds are STILL 1 in 10,000.
(The 1 in 10,000 is just an example, by the way. Some machines hit more frequently, some much less. There are machines with a 1 in 2,000 chance of hitting the top jackpot, while in a big-money game like Megabucks the chances are 1 in tens of millions.)
If it's a progressive machine, adding money to the top jackpot does not change the odds of your hitting that jackpot. If the progressive meter starts at $1,000, and the jackpot meter has grown to $2,000, the chances of winning are the same as when you started. The long-term payback percentage does grow with the progressive meter, because the big hit pays more when it finally comes.
As for changing coin denomination, that DOES make a difference. Generally, penny machines pay less than nickel machines, which pay less than quarters, which pay less than dollars and so on. If you play maximum coins on a penny machine, your bet may be as large as if you're playing a three-reel dollar slot, but in most cases the dollar game will have a higher payback percentage.
Of course, there's also a difference in the play experience between a penny video slot and a dollar reel-spinner. Winning spins are more frequent on the video game, but payoffs of many times your wager are more common on the reel-spinner. The penny game will keep you in your seat longer, but the dollar game gives you a better chance of walking away with a fairly substantial win. That's the choice slot players face when deciding between low-denomination video games and higher denomination reel spinners.
Friday, June 14, 2013
Splitting hairs in Caribbean Stud strategy
Q. Playing Caribbean Stud Poker, I had Ace-King-8-5-2, and the card the dealer turned face up from her hand was an Ace. I made the bet, because my Ace matched his Ace. Another guy at the table told me that was the wrong play, that you bet only if one of the other three cards matches the dealer. The dealer didn't qualify, so I won on my ante and just got my bet back anyway. Her next highest card was a 10, and there were no pairs. But was the other player right? I want to give myself the best chance to win, and I always thought I was doing it by betting with Ace-King and a match.A. The other player was correct. When we have Ace-King in Caribbean Stud, we do a lot of splitting of hairs. One of those hair splits is that when we have Ace-King and no other face cards in the hand, we bet whenever one of the other three cards matches the dealer's face up card, and fold when there's no such match.
Note the provision that there are no other face cards in the hand. If we have Ace-King- Queen or Ace-King-Jack, we bet if any of our five cards match the dealer's face-up card, and with Ace-King-Queen, we bet even with no match if our fourth highest card outranks the dealer's up card.
How much does all that gain us? Very little. With the strategy given here, you'll face a house edge of about 5.23 percent of the ante or 2.56 percent of total action. According to Michael Shackelford's outstanding Web site, wizardofodds.com, if you bet with Ace-King when any of your five cards matches the dealer up card, the house edge is 5.33 percent of the ante or 2.62 percent of total action.
By far the most important component of Caribbean Stud strategy is to bet with all pairs. I've seen many players fold with a pair of 2s or 3s. Those aren't necessarily winning hands, but in the long run, you'll lose more money by folding and forfeiting your ante than you will by betting the hand and accepting that you'll win some and lose some.
Thursday, June 13, 2013
With bigger jackpots, do four-Ace hands occur less often?
Q. How is it that a casino can afford to pay you 800 coins for four Aces on some games, 2,000 on some others, but only 125 on Jacks or Better? On the games that pay more, are they programmed so the Aces come up less often?A. On the contrary. We hit four Aces more often, not less, on games such as Double Bonus Poker (800 coins for a five-coin bet), Double Double Bonus Poker (800 coins most of the time, but 2,000 if the four Aces are accompanied by a 2, 3 or 4) or Super Aces (2,000 coins) than we do on Jacks or Better (125 coins). That's because we adjust our playing strategy to account for the bigger payoffs on those Aces.
The prime example is a full house that includes three Aces. On Jacks or Better, we just take the full house payoff. On the other games mentioned, we hold the three Aces and discard the other pair, hoping for the fourth Ace.
So how can games such as Double Bonus, Double Double Bonus and Super Aces pay us so much more than Jacks or Better does on Ace quads? Because what they give you on four of a kind, they take away elsewhere on the pay table. One thing all those big Ace games have in common is that they pay only 1-for-1 on two pair, instead of the 2-for-1 you get on Jacks or Better. The drop in the two-pair payoff costs us about 12 percent of our return in the long run, giving game designers plenty of leeway to give us bigger bonuses elsewhere on the pay table.
Monday, June 10, 2013
Do casinos make their profit from winning players?
Q. Sitting in the buffet, I caught a snippet of conversation that I was wondering if you could explain. (I wasn't listening in, they were so loud I couldn't help hearing.) One guy was saying that the casino really makes its money off the winners, and the other guy said something like, "Oh really? You mean we pay for all this when we win?" That doesn't really make sense to me.A. Kind of leaves you wondering what kind of gambling palaces they could build if everybody won, doesn't it? If the casino makes money off the winners, then more winners must mean more profits, right?
But seriously, there is a way of looking at how the casino makes its money that looks at casino profits as a tax on the winners. Casino games make money because they pay the winners at less than true odds. If 38 people are sitting at a double-zero roulette table and each bet $1 on a different number on a single spin, the 37 losers each will lose their buck, and the one winner will be paid at 35-1 odds and walk away with $36. If the casino was paying true odds, the one winner should be paid at 37-1 odds and walk away with $38. The casino profit is the $2 not paid to the winner that he'd get if true odds were paid.
Same deal with sports betting. In most sports books, you have to put down 10 percent vigorish on top of your bet. Let's say you and I are betting on the same football game, with me betting on Team A and you on Team B. We each intend to bet $100, but we have to pay the vig, so we actually each bet $110. When my team wins --- hey, it's my example; I get to win --- you lose your $110 bet, but I'm paid only $100, along with the return of my $110 wager. The casino profit is the $10 it didn't pay me on my winning bet.
Sometimes the paying of winners at less than true odds is disguised a bit. In baccarat, for instance, bets on banker win more often than they lose, and bets seem to be paid at even money. However, bettors have to pay a 5 percent commission on winning bets, so winners aren't really paid at 1-1; they're paid at (1 minus .05)-1, and that's less than the true odds of winning the wager.
So it goes with every casino game. There are going to be winners, and there are going to be losers, but the house will make money because it pays winners less than the true odds of winning the bet.
Wednesday, May 29, 2013
Blackjack mythology
Hang around blackjack tables long enough, and you'll pick up all
kinds of "wisdom" from other players and from the dealers. Of course, a
lot of what you hear isn't really all that wise, and a good part of
blackjack wisdom comes from knowing when to disregard the things people
say about the games people play.
A deuce is a dealer's Ace.
Let's be clear here. An ACE is a dealer's Ace. The most flexible of cards since it can be counted as either 1 or 11, Aces are almost as good for the dealer as they are for the player --- they're more important to players because you must have an Ace to get a blackjack, and blackjacks pay 3-2 to players and not to dealers.
And deuces are more important to dealers than to players. That's because dealers must always hit hands of 16 and under. Players stand on some of those hands, so dealers are in more situations where a small card like a 2 will help their hands.
Still, I usually hear this remark when the dealer has a 2 face up, and in that situation there's no comparison between a deuce and an Ace. With a deuce up, the dealer busts about 35 percent of the time. With an Ace up, the dealer busts only between 11 and 12 percent of the time. You would MUCH rather see the dealer start with a 2 than an Ace.
The object of blackjack is to win every hand. Taking even money is a sure win. Always take even money.
Even money is a form of insurance, offered when the player has a blackjack and the dealer has an Ace face up. You can accept an even-money payoff on your blackjack, and not risk the dealer also having a blackjack. Decline, and you'll get no payoff at all if the dealer has a 10-value card face down.
Countless dealers have told me even money is "the only sure thing in the house." The other piece of wisdom, that the object is to win every hand, is something I've heard from a few players. Let's dispense with that part first. The object of blackjack is not to win every hand, or even the majority of hands. If that's what you're trying to do, you're doomed to fail. Even the best card counters lose more hands than they win.
But even though the pros lose more hands than they win, they win more money than they lose. Why? Because the real object is to maximize winnings while minimizing losses. And one of the ways to maximize winnings is to go for the full 3-2 payoffs on blackjacks. Even money becomes a break-even proposition when a third of the remaining cards are 10-values. Of all cards in the deck, only 30.8 percent are 10-values.
Decline the even-money offer. You won't win as many hands, but you'll win more money.
Surrender is for people who don't like to gamble.
This sage advice isn't always expressed in those terms. I've found it more often in terms of the odd snide remark when I surrender. "I guess I came to gamble," or "Did you come to play or not?"
At the Tropicana in Las Vegas one time, I surrendered a 16 when the dealer showed a 10. A woman next to me said, "Oh, I didn't know you could surrender here. How does that work?" And the gentleman sitting at third base snarled, "I guess it depends on whether you came to gamble."
Now, playing blackjack well includes both maximizing winnings and minimizing losses. (Where have I heard that before?) Surrender comes under the heading of minimizing losses.
The majority of casinos don't offer surrender at all. Those that do offer "late surrender" --- "late" because you have to wait until the dealer checks for blackjack. If the dealer has a blackjack, you can't surrender.
When you surrender, you give up half your bet in exchange for not having the play out the hand and risk losing the full amount. It's a good deal, if you know how to use it. In a multiple-deck game in which the dealer stands on all 17s, surrender with hard 16 if the dealer's face-up card is a 9, 10-value or Ace, and surrender with hard 15 if the dealer's up card is a 10-value. In casinos where the dealer hits soft 17, we add one hand --- in addition to the others listed, surrender on hard 15 when the dealer shows an Ace.
Surrender is a guaranteed loss that we don't accept lightly. All we're trying to do is mitigate the damage when we're at a big disadvantage. I've seen players go the total opposite ways of the anti-surrender sages, players who surrender 14s and even 13s anytime the dealer has a 10 or Ace, and sometimes even 9s or 8s. That's overboard. We're not in that much of a hurry to give our money away.
Limit the surrendering those few situations listed above. That's the wise way, and it leaves plenty of hands to gamble.
A deuce is a dealer's Ace.
Let's be clear here. An ACE is a dealer's Ace. The most flexible of cards since it can be counted as either 1 or 11, Aces are almost as good for the dealer as they are for the player --- they're more important to players because you must have an Ace to get a blackjack, and blackjacks pay 3-2 to players and not to dealers.
And deuces are more important to dealers than to players. That's because dealers must always hit hands of 16 and under. Players stand on some of those hands, so dealers are in more situations where a small card like a 2 will help their hands.
Still, I usually hear this remark when the dealer has a 2 face up, and in that situation there's no comparison between a deuce and an Ace. With a deuce up, the dealer busts about 35 percent of the time. With an Ace up, the dealer busts only between 11 and 12 percent of the time. You would MUCH rather see the dealer start with a 2 than an Ace.
The object of blackjack is to win every hand. Taking even money is a sure win. Always take even money.
Even money is a form of insurance, offered when the player has a blackjack and the dealer has an Ace face up. You can accept an even-money payoff on your blackjack, and not risk the dealer also having a blackjack. Decline, and you'll get no payoff at all if the dealer has a 10-value card face down.
Countless dealers have told me even money is "the only sure thing in the house." The other piece of wisdom, that the object is to win every hand, is something I've heard from a few players. Let's dispense with that part first. The object of blackjack is not to win every hand, or even the majority of hands. If that's what you're trying to do, you're doomed to fail. Even the best card counters lose more hands than they win.
But even though the pros lose more hands than they win, they win more money than they lose. Why? Because the real object is to maximize winnings while minimizing losses. And one of the ways to maximize winnings is to go for the full 3-2 payoffs on blackjacks. Even money becomes a break-even proposition when a third of the remaining cards are 10-values. Of all cards in the deck, only 30.8 percent are 10-values.
Decline the even-money offer. You won't win as many hands, but you'll win more money.
Surrender is for people who don't like to gamble.
This sage advice isn't always expressed in those terms. I've found it more often in terms of the odd snide remark when I surrender. "I guess I came to gamble," or "Did you come to play or not?"
At the Tropicana in Las Vegas one time, I surrendered a 16 when the dealer showed a 10. A woman next to me said, "Oh, I didn't know you could surrender here. How does that work?" And the gentleman sitting at third base snarled, "I guess it depends on whether you came to gamble."
Now, playing blackjack well includes both maximizing winnings and minimizing losses. (Where have I heard that before?) Surrender comes under the heading of minimizing losses.
The majority of casinos don't offer surrender at all. Those that do offer "late surrender" --- "late" because you have to wait until the dealer checks for blackjack. If the dealer has a blackjack, you can't surrender.
When you surrender, you give up half your bet in exchange for not having the play out the hand and risk losing the full amount. It's a good deal, if you know how to use it. In a multiple-deck game in which the dealer stands on all 17s, surrender with hard 16 if the dealer's face-up card is a 9, 10-value or Ace, and surrender with hard 15 if the dealer's up card is a 10-value. In casinos where the dealer hits soft 17, we add one hand --- in addition to the others listed, surrender on hard 15 when the dealer shows an Ace.
Surrender is a guaranteed loss that we don't accept lightly. All we're trying to do is mitigate the damage when we're at a big disadvantage. I've seen players go the total opposite ways of the anti-surrender sages, players who surrender 14s and even 13s anytime the dealer has a 10 or Ace, and sometimes even 9s or 8s. That's overboard. We're not in that much of a hurry to give our money away.
Limit the surrendering those few situations listed above. That's the wise way, and it leaves plenty of hands to gamble.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)